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Publications

Publications by HumanISE

2019

Day-ahead electricity market price forecasting using artificial neural network with spearman data correlation

Authors
Nascimento, J; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;

Publication
2019 IEEE Milan PowerTech, PowerTech 2019

Abstract
Electricity markets are complex environments with very dynamic characteristics. The large-scale penetration of renewable energy sources has brought an increased uncertainty to generation, which is consequently, reflected in electricity market prices. In this way, novel advanced forecasting methods that are able to predict electricity market prices taking into account the new variables that influence prices variation are required. This paper proposes a new model for day-ahead electricity market prices forecasting based on the application of an artificial neural network. The main novelty of this paper relates to the pre-processing phase, in which the relevant data referring to the different variables that have a direct influence on market prices such as generation, temperature, consumption, among others, is analysed. The association between these variables is performed using spearman correlation, from which results the identification of which data has a larger influence on the market prices variation. This pre-analysis is then used to adapt the training process of the artificial neural network, leading to improved forecasting results, by using the most relevant data in an appropriate way. © 2019 IEEE.

2019

A Residential House Comparative Case Study Using Market Available Smart Plugs and EnAPlugs with Shared Knowledge

Authors
Gomes, L; Sousa, F; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
Smart home devices currently available on the market can be used for remote monitoring and control. Energy management systems can take advantage of this and deploy solutions that can be implemented in our homes. One of the big enablers is smart plugs that allow the control of electrical resources while providing a retrofitting solution, hence avoiding the need for replacing the electrical devices. However, current so-called smart plugs lack the ability to understand the environment they are in, or the electrical appliance/resource they are controlling. This paper applies environment awareness smart plugs (EnAPlugs) able to provide enough data for energy management systems or act on its own, via a multi-agent approach. A case study is presented, which shows the application of the proposed approach in a house where 17 EnAPlugs are deployed. Results show the ability to shared knowledge and perform individual resource optimizations. This paper evidences that by integrating artificial intelligence on devices, energy advantages can be observed and used in favor of users, providing comfort and savings.

2019

Genetic Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization with Weighted Sum Approach

Authors
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Corchado, JM; Soares, J; Lezama, F;

Publication
Proceedings of the 2018 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2018

Abstract
The use of metaheuristics to solve real-life problems has increased in recent years since they are easy to implement, and the problems become easy to model when applying metaheuristic approaches. However, arguably the most important aspect is the simulation time since results can be obtained from metaheuristic methods in a much smaller time, and with a good approximation to the results obtained with exact methods. In this work, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) metaheuristic is adapted and apphed to solve the optimization of electricity markets participation portfolios. This work considers a multiobjective model that incorporates the calculation of the profit and the risk incurred in the electricity negotiations. Results of the proposed approach are compared to those achieved with an exact method, and it can be concluded that the proposed GA model can achieve very close results to those of the deterministic approach, in much quicker simulation time. © 2018 IEEE.

2019

Context aware Q-Learning-based model for decision support in the negotiation of energy contracts

Authors
Rodriguez Fernandez, J; Pinto, T; Silva, F; Praca, I; Vale, Z; Corchado, JM;

Publication
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS

Abstract
Automated negotiation plays a crucial role in the decision support for bilateral energy transactions. In fact, an adequate analysis of past actions of opposing negotiators can improve the decision-making process of market players, allowing them to choose the most appropriate parties to negotiate with in order to increase their outcomes. This paper proposes a new model to estimate the expected prices that can be achieved in bilateral contracts under a specific context, enabling adequate risk management in the negotiation process. The proposed approach is based on an adaptation of the Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithm to choose the best scenario (set of forecast contract prices) from a set of possible scenarios that are determined using several forecasting and estimation methods. The learning process assesses the probability of occurrence of each scenario, by comparing each expected scenario with the real scenario. The final chosen scenario is the one that presents the higher expected utility value. Besides, the learning method can determine which is the best scenario for each context, since the behaviour of players can change according to the negotiation environment. Consequently, these conditions influence the final contract price of negotiations. This approach allows the supported player to be prepared for the negotiation scenario that is the most probable to represent a reliable approximation of the actual negotiation environment.

2019

Electricity Price Forecast for Futures Contracts with Artificial Neural Network and Spearman Data Correlation

Authors
Nascimento, J; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;

Publication
DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Abstract
Futures contracts are a valuable market option for electricity negotiating players, as they enable reducing the risk associated to the day-ahead market volatility. The price defined in these contracts is, however, itself subject to a degree of uncertainty; thereby turning price forecasting models into attractive assets for the involved players. This paper proposes a model for futures contracts price forecasting, using artificial neural networks. The proposed model is based on the results of a data analysis using the spearman rank correlation coefficient. From this analysis, the most relevant variables to be considered in the training process are identified. Results show that the proposed model for monthly average electricity price forecast is able to achieve very low forecasting errors.

2019

Practical Application of a Multi-Agent Systems Society for Energy Management and Control Demonstration

Authors
Pinto, T; Santos, G; Vale, Z;

Publication
AAMAS '19: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 18TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AUTONOMOUS AGENTS AND MULTIAGENT SYSTEMS

Abstract
Power and energy systems lack decision-support systems that enable studying big problems as a whole. The interoperability between multi-agent systems that address specific parts of the global problem is essential. Ontologies ease interoperability between heterogeneous systems providing semantic meaning to the information exchanged between the various parties. This paper presents the practical application of a society of multi agent systems, which uses ontologies to enable the interoperability between different types of agent-based simulators, directed to the simulation and operation of electricity markets, smart grids and residential energy management. Real data-based demonstration shows the proposed approach advantages in enabling comprehensive, autonomous and intelligent power system simulation studies.

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