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Publications

Publications by HumanISE

2014

Multi-agent simulation of bilateral contracting in competitive electricity markets

Authors
Lopes, F; Algarvio, H; Sousa, JAM; Coelho, H; Pinto, T; Santos, G; Vale, Z; Praca, I;

Publication
Proceedings - International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA

Abstract
Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff.

2014

Strategic bidding for electricity markets negotiation using support vector machines

Authors
Pereira, R; Sousa, TM; Pinto, T; Praca, I; Vale, Z; Morais, H;

Publication
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Abstract
Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

2014

Towards a Unified European Electricity Market: The Contribution of Data-mining to Support Realistic Simulation Studies

Authors
Pinto, T; Santos, G; Pereira, IF; Fernandes, R; Sousa, TM; Praca, I; Vale, Z; Morais, H;

Publication
2014 IEEE PES GENERAL MEETING - CONFERENCE & EXPOSITION

Abstract
Worldwide electricity markets have been evolving into regional and even continental scales. The aim at an efficient use of renewable based generation in places where it exceeds the local needs is one of the main reasons. A reference case of this evolution is the European Electricity Market, where countries are connected, and several regional markets were created, each one grouping several countries, and supporting transactions of huge amounts of electrical energy. The continuous transformations electricity markets have been experiencing over the years create the need to use simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and involved players for understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper focuses on demonstrating the advantage that real electricity markets data has for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations will bring to the participant countries. A case study using MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance when using several different market mechanisms.

2014

Data Extraction Tool to Analyse, Transform and Store Real Data from Electricity Markets

Authors
Pereira, IF; Sousa, TM; Praca, I; Freitas, A; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Morais, H;

Publication
DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

Abstract
The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring process produced. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge to define realistic scenarios, which are essential for understanding and forecast electricity markets behavior. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of electricity markets and of the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators' websites is presented, assuring constant updating and reliability of the stored data.

2014

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

Authors
Sousa, TM; Pinto, T; Praca, I; Vale, Z; Morais, H;

Publication
DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

Abstract
This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

2014

Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

Authors
Fernandes, R; Santos, G; Praca, I; Pinto, T; Morais, H; Pereira, IF; Vale, Z;

Publication
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF HETEROGENEOUS MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS: THE PAAMS COLLECTION

Abstract
The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexity in market players' interactions and generated emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. In order to provide players with competitive advantage in the market, decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful. In this context arises MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), a multi-agent based simulator that models real electricity markets. To reinforce MASCEM with the capability of recreating the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is crucial to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents a new negotiation model implemented in MASCEM based on the negotiation model used in day-ahead market (Elspot) of Nord Pool. This is a key module to study competitive electricity markets, as it presents well defined and distinct characteristics from the already implemented markets, and it is a reference electricity market in Europe (the one with the larger amount of traded power).

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