2023
Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM; Kourentzes, N; Fildes, R;
Publication
APPLIED SYSTEM INNOVATION
Abstract
Retailers depend on accurate forecasts of product sales at the Store x SKU level to efficiently manage their inventory. Consequently, there has been increasing interest in identifying more advanced statistical techniques that lead to accuracy improvements. However, the inclusion of multiple drivers affecting demand into commonly used ARIMA and ETS models is not straightforward, particularly when many explanatory variables are available. Moreover, regularization regression models that shrink the model's parameters allow for the inclusion of a lot of relevant information but do not intrinsically handle the dynamics of the demand. These problems have not been addressed by previous studies. Nevertheless, multiple simultaneous effects interacting are common in retailing. To be successful, any approach needs to be automatic, robust and efficiently scaleable. In this study, we design novel approaches to forecast retailer product sales taking into account the main drivers which affect SKU demand at store level. To address the variable selection challenge, the use of dimensionality reduction via principal components analysis (PCA) and shrinkage estimators was investigated. The empirical results, using a case study of supermarket sales in Portugal, show that both PCA and shrinkage are useful and result in gains in forecast accuracy in the order of 10% over benchmarks while offering insights on the impact of promotions. Focusing on the promotional periods, PCA-based models perform strongly, while shrinkage estimators over-shrink. For the non-promotional periods, shrinkage estimators significantly outperform the alternatives.
2023
Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;
Publication
BIG DATA AND COGNITIVE COMPUTING
Abstract
Global models have been developed to tackle the challenge of forecasting sets of series that are related or share similarities, but they have not been developed for heterogeneous datasets. Various methods of partitioning by relatedness have been introduced to enhance the similarities of sets, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy but often at the cost of a reduced sample size, which could be harmful. To shed light on how the relatedness between series impacts the effectiveness of global models in real-world demand-forecasting problems, we perform an extensive empirical study using the M5 competition dataset. We examine cross-learning scenarios driven by the product hierarchy commonly employed in retail planning to allow global models to capture interdependencies across products and regions more effectively. Our findings show that global models outperform state-of-the-art local benchmarks by a considerable margin, indicating that they are not inherently more limited than local models and can handle unrelated time-series data effectively. The accuracy of data-partitioning approaches increases as the sizes of the data pools and the models' complexity decrease. However, there is a trade-off between data availability and data relatedness. Smaller data pools lead to increased similarity among time series, making it easier to capture cross-product and cross-region dependencies, but this comes at the cost of a reduced sample, which may not be beneficial. Finally, it is worth noting that the successful implementation of global models for heterogeneous datasets can significantly impact forecasting practice.
2023
Authors
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;
Publication
24TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS OF NEURAL NETWORKS, EAAAI/EANN 2023
Abstract
Sales forecasts are an important tool for inventory management, allowing retailers to balance inventory levels with customer demand and market conditions. By using sales forecasts to inform inventory management decisions, companies can optimize their inventory levels and avoid costly stockouts or excess inventory costs. The scale of the forecasting problem in the retail domain is significant and requires ongoing attention and resources to ensure accurate and effective forecasting. Recent advances in machine learning algorithms such as deep learning have made possible to build more sophisticated forecasting models that can learn from large amounts of data. These global models can capture complex patterns and relationships in the data and predict demand across multiple regions and product categories. In this paper, we investigate the cross-learning scenarios, inspired by the product hierarchy frequently utilized in retail planning, which enable global models to better capture interdependencies between different products and regions. Our empirical results obtained using M5 competition dataset indicate that the cross-learning approaches exhibit significantly superior performance compared to local forecasting benchmarks. Our findings also suggest that using partial pooling at the lowest aggregation level of the retail hierarchical allows for a more effective capture of the distinct characteristics of each group.
2023
Authors
Ramos, P; Oliveira, JM;
Publication
APPLIED SYSTEM INNOVATION
Abstract
Retailers must have accurate sales forecasts to efficiently and effectively operate their businesses and remain competitive in the marketplace. Global forecasting models like RNNs can be a powerful tool for forecasting in retail settings, where multiple time series are often interrelated and influenced by a variety of external factors. By including covariates in a forecasting model, we can often better capture the various factors that can influence sales in a retail setting. This can help improve the accuracy of our forecasts and enable better decision making for inventory management, purchasing, and other operational decisions. In this study, we investigate how the accuracy of global forecasting models is affected by the inclusion of different potential demand covariates. To ensure the significance of the study's findings, we used the M5 forecasting competition's openly accessible and well-established dataset. The results obtained from DeepAR models trained on different combinations of features indicate that the inclusion of time-, event-, and ID-related features consistently enhances the forecast accuracy. The optimal performance is attained when all these covariates are employed together, leading to a 1.8% improvement in RMSSE and a 6.5% improvement in MASE compared to the baseline model without features. It is noteworthy that all DeepAR models, both with and without covariates, exhibit a significantly superior forecasting performance in comparison to the seasonal naive benchmark.
2023
Authors
Carvalho, G; Pereira, M; Kiazadeh, A; Tavares, VG;
Publication
2023 IEEE INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON CIRCUITS AND SYSTEMS, ISCAS
Abstract
In this work, both analogue and digital depletionmode single channel transistor circuits are presented and are simulated using an n-channel IGZO technology with V-TH =-0.87V. A logic family is introduced, suppressing the need for an additional voltage level and level restoring circuitry. Furthermore, in the analogue domain, a depletion current mirror topology is presented with demonstrated small current error. Finally, the current mirror is used in the design of an OpAmp, achieving a simulated open-loop gain of 45 dB, CMRR of 58 dB, unity-gain frequency of 444 kHz and a phase margin of 71 degrees.
2023
Authors
Montenegro, H; Silva, W; Cardoso, JS;
Publication
MEDICAL APPLICATIONS WITH DISENTANGLEMENTS, MAD 2022
Abstract
The lack of interpretability of Deep Learning models hinders their deployment in clinical contexts. Case-based explanations can be used to justify these models' decisions and improve their trustworthiness. However, providing medical cases as explanations may threaten the privacy of patients. We propose a generative adversarial network to disentangle identity and medical features from images. Using this network, we can alter the identity of an image to anonymize it while preserving relevant explanatory features. As a proof of concept, we apply the proposed model to biometric and medical datasets, demonstrating its capacity to anonymize medical images while preserving explanatory evidence and a reasonable level of intelligibility. Finally, we demonstrate that the model is inherently capable of generating counterfactual explanations.
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