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Publications

Publications by Tiago André Soares

2023

Considering Forward Electricity Prices for a Hydro Power Plant Risk Analysis in the Brazilian Electricity Market

Authors
Lauro, A; Kitamura, D; Lima, W; Dias, B; Soares, T;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
The Brazilian Power System is mainly composed of renewable generation from hydroelectric and wind. Hence, spot and forward electricity prices tend to represent the inherently stochastic nature of these resources, while risk management is a measure taken by agents, especially hydro power plants (HPPs) to hedge against deep financial losses. A HPP goal is to maximize its profit considering uncertainties in forward electricity prices, spot prices, and generation scaling factor (GSF) for years ahead. Therefore, the objective of this work is to simulate the real decision-making process of a HPP, where they need to have a perspective of the forward market and future spot price assessment to negotiate forward electricity contracts. To do so, the present work models the uncertainty in electricity forward prices via two-stage stochastic programming, assessing the benefits of the stochastic solution in comparison to the deterministic one. In addition, different risk aversion levels are assessed using conditional value at risk (CVaR). An important conclusion is that the results show that the greater the HPP risk aversion is, the greater the energy selling via electricity forward contracts. Moreover, the proposed model has benefits in comparison to a deterministic approach.

2023

Design of an Energy Policy for the Decarbonisation of Residential and Service Buildings in Northern Portugal

Authors
Capelo, S; Soares, T; Azevedo, I; Fonseca, W; Matos, MA;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
The decarbonisation of the building sector is crucial for Portugal's goal of achieving economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2050. To mobilize communities towards energy efficiency measures, it is important to understand the primary drivers and barriers that must be overcome through policymaking. This paper aims to review existing Energy Policies and Actions (EPA) in Portugal and assess their effectiveness in improving Energy Efficiency (EE) and reducing CO2 emissions in the building sector. The Local Energy Planning Assistant (LEPA) tool was used to model, test, validate and compare the implementation of current and alternative EPAs in the North of Portugal, including the national EE plan. The results indicate that electrification of heating and cooling, EE measures, and the proliferation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are crucial for achieving climate neutrality. The study found that the modelling of alternative EPAs can be improved to reduce investment costs and increase Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction. Among the alternatives assessed, the proposed one (Alternative 4) presents the best returns on investment in terms of cost savings and emissions reduction. It allows for 52% investment cost savings in the residential sector and 13% in the service sector when compared to the current national roadmap to carbon neutrality (Alternative 2). The estimated emission reduction in 2050 for Alternative 4 is 0.64% for the residential sector and 3.2% for the service sector when compared to Alternative 2.

2023

Distributed Network-Constrained P2P Community-Based Market for Distribution Networks

Authors
Oliveira, C; Simoes, M; Bitencourt, L; Soares, T; Matos, MA;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
Energy communities have been designed to empower consumers while maximizing the self-consumption of local renewable energy sources (RESs). Their presence in distribution systems can result in strong modifications in the operation and management of such systems, moving from a centralized operation to a distributed one. In this scope, this work proposes a distributed community-based local energy market that aims at minimizing the costs of each community member, accounting for the technical network constraints. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is adopted to distribute the market, and preserve, as much as possible, the privacy of the prosumers' assets, production, and demand. The proposed method is tested on a 10-bus medium voltage radial distribution network, in which each node contains a large prosumer, and the relaxed branch flow model is adopted to model the optimization problem. The market framework is proposed and modeled in a centralized and distributed fashion. Market clearing on a day-ahead basis is carried out taking into account actual energy exchanges, as generation from renewable sources is uncertain. The comparison between the centralized and distributed ADMM approach shows an 0.098% error for the nodes' voltages. The integrated OPF in the community-based market is a computational burden that increases the resolution of the market dispatch problem by about eight times the computation time, from 200.7 s (without OPF) to 1670.2 s. An important conclusion is that the proposed market structure guarantees that P2P exchanges avoid the violation of the network constraints, and ensures that community agents' can still benefit from the community-based architecture advantages.

2023

e-Carsharing siting and sizing DLMP-based under demand uncertainty

Authors
Bitencourt, L; Dias, B; Soares, T; Borba, B; Quiros Tortos, J;

Publication
APPLIED ENERGY

Abstract
Electric vehicle (EV) sales and shared mobility are increasing worldwide. Despite its challenges, e-carsharing has an opportunity to still profit in periods of low rental demand compared to traditional carsharing. The purpose of this paper is to assess the profitability of an e-carsharing company based on distribution local marginal price (DLMP) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) that cooperates with the distribution system operator (DSO) through a two -stage stochastic model. The AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) is modeled using second-order cone program-ming (SOCP) linearized by the global polyhedral approximation. The IEEE 33 bus test system and a real Kernel distribution for the EV rental demands are used in four planning cases in the GAMS environment. The results indicate that the proposed methodology does not affect EV user satisfaction. Moreover, the planning disregarding the power grid perspective is the most profitable, but the operation may not be possible in real applications due to the high-power flows via V2G. Finally, the e-carsharing planning considering the DSO perspective increased the charging cost by 1.66 % but also reduced the DLMP peak, losses, and peak demand by 2.5 %, 1.5 %, and 5.1 %, respectively. One important conclusion is that the technical benefits brought to the DSO by the e-carsharing company could be turned into services and advantages for both agents, increasing profit and mitigating negative impacts, such as higher operational costs.

2023

Economic Analysis of a Hydrogen Power Plant in the Portuguese Electricity Market

Authors
Rodrigues, LM; Soares, T; Rezende, I; Fontoura, JP; Miranda, V;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
Hydrogen is regarded as a flexible energy carrier with multiple applications across several sectors. For instance, it can be used in industrial processes, transports, heating, and electrical power generation. Green hydrogen, produced from renewable sources, can have a crucial role in the pathway towards global decarbonization. However, the success of green hydrogen production ultimately depends on its economic sustainability. In this context, this work evaluates the economic performance of a hydrogen power plant participating in the electricity market and supplying multiple hydrogen consumers. The analysis includes technical and economical details of the main components of the hydrogen power plant. Its operation is simulated using six different scenarios, which admit the production of either grey or green hydrogen. The scenarios used for the analysis include data from the Iberian electricity market for the Portuguese hub. An important conclusion is that the combination of multiple services in a hydrogen power plant has a positive effect on its economic performance. However, as of today, consumers who would wish to acquire green hydrogen would have to be willing to pay higher prices to compensate for the shorter periods of operation of hydrogen power plants and for their intrinsic losses. Nonetheless, an increase in green hydrogen demand based on a greater environmental awareness can lead to the need to not only build more of these facilities, but also to integrate more services into them. This could promote the investment in hydrogen-related technologies and result in changes in capital and operating costs of key components of these plants, which are necessary to bring down production costs.

2023

Risk-Averse Stochastic Programming for Planning Hybrid Electrical Energy Systems: A Brazilian Case

Authors
Kitamura, D; Willer, L; Dias, B; Soares, T;

Publication
ENERGIES

Abstract
This work presents a risk-averse stochastic programming model for the optimal planning of hybrid electrical energy systems (HEES), considering the regulatory policy applied to distribution systems in Brazil. Uncertainties associated with variables related to photovoltaic (PV) generation, load demand, fuel price for diesel generation and electricity tariff are considered, through the definition of scenarios. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) metric is used in the optimization problem to consider the consumer's risk propensity. The model determines the number and type of PV panels, diesel generation, and battery storage capacities, in which the objective is to minimize investment and operating costs over the planning horizon. Case studies involving a large commercial consumer are carried out to evaluate the proposed model. Results showed that under normal conditions only the PV system is viable. The PV/diesel system tends to be viable in adverse hydrological conditions for risk-averse consumers. Under this condition, the PV/battery system is viable for a reduction of 87% in the battery investment cost. An important conclusion is that the risk analysis tool is essential to assist consumers in the decision-making process of investing in HEES.

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