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Publications

Publications by CEGI

2025

Learning from the aggregated optimum: Managing port wine inventory in the face of climate risks

Authors
Pahr, A; Grunow, M; Amorim, P;

Publication
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH

Abstract
Port wine stocks ameliorate during storage, facilitating product differentiation according to age. This induces a trade-off between immediate revenues and further maturation. Varying climate conditions in the limited supply region lead to stochastic purchase prices for wine grapes. Decision makers must integrate recurring purchasing, production, and issuance decisions. Because stocks from different age classes can be blended to create final products, the solution space increases exponentially in the number of age classes. We model the problem of managing port wine inventory as a Markov decision process, considering decay as an additional source of uncertainty. For small problems, we derive general management strategies from the long-run behavior of the optimal policy. Our solution approach for otherwise intractable large problems, therefore, first aggregates age classes to create a tractable problem representation. We then use machine learning to train tree-based decision rules that reproduce the optimal aggregated policy and the enclosed management strategies. The derived rules are scaled back to solve the original problem. Learning from the aggregated optimum outperforms benchmark rules by 21.4% in annual profits (while leaving a 2.8%-gap to an upper bound). For an industry case, we obtain a 17.4%-improvement over current practices. Our research provides distinct strategies for how producers can mitigate climate risks. The purchasing policy dynamically adapts to climate-dependent price fluctuations. Uncertainties are met with lower production of younger products, whereas strategic surpluses of older stocks ensure high production of older products. Moreover, a wide spread in the age classes used for blending reduces decay risk exposure.

2025

Exploring Perceptions of Comfort, Security and Safety in Different Modes of Transport: A Comparative Study

Authors
Ferreira, MC; Dias, TG;

Publication
Lecture Notes in Mobility - Transport Transitions: Advancing Sustainable and Inclusive Mobility

Abstract
Abstract This study seeks to comprehensively analyze the multidimensional determinants underlying perceptions of safety, security, and comfort in transport mode choice, specifically focusing on private transport, public transport and walking. The research begins with an extensive literature review to identify and delve into the factors influencing perceptions of safety, security, and comfort across various transport modes. This inquiry is further enhanced by organizing two focused group sessions. A total of 35 key factors were identified, forming the basis for subsequent investigation. The study then progressed to the development and administration of a survey aimed at capturing responses from a diverse audience, with the goal of exploring the factors influencing perceptions related to different transport modes. A total of 302 responses were collected and meticulously analyzed to discern the factors impacting various relationships and to identify consistent perceptions across diverse transport modes. Additionally, a factor analysis was conducted to validate the findings derived from the data. The outcomes of this research constitute a significant contribution to the existing literature, offering valuable insights that pave the way for a more holistic understanding of the factors guiding transport mode choices.

2025

Predicting demand for new products in fashion retailing using censored data

Authors
Sousa, MS; Loureiro, ALD; Miguéis, VL;

Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
In today's highly competitive fashion retail market, it is crucial to have accurate demand forecasting systems, namely for new products. Many experts have used machine learning techniques to forecast product sales. However, sales that do not happen due to lack of product availability are often ignored, resulting in censored demand and service levels that are lower than expected. Motivated by the relevance of this issue, we developed a two-stage approach to forecast the demand for new products in the fashion retail industry. In the first stage, we compared four methods of transforming historical sales into historical demand for products already commercialized. Three methods used sales-weighted averages to estimate demand on the days with stock-outs, while the fourth method employed an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to account for potential substitute products affected by stock-outs of preferred products. We then evaluated the performance of these methods and selected the most accurate one for calculating the primary demand for these historical products. In the second stage, we predicted the demand for the products of the following collection using Random Forest, Deep Neural Networks, and Support Vector Regression algorithms. In addition, we applied a model that consisted of weighting the demands previously calculated for the products of past collections that were most similar to the new products. We validated the proposed methodology using a European fashion retailer case study. The results revealed that the method using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm had the highest potential, followed by the Random Forest algorithm. We believe that this approach will lead to more assertive and better-aligned decisions in production management.

2025

Aligning priorities: A Comparative analysis of scientific and policy perspectives on municipal solid waste management

Authors
Rodrigues, M; Antunes, JA; Migueis, V;

Publication
WASTE MANAGEMENT

Abstract
Municipal solid waste (MSW) management has become a critical issue today, posing substantial economic, environmental, and social challenges. Identifying and analyzing dominant themes in this field is essential for advancing research and policies towards sustainable MSW management practices. This study aims to explore the key issues related to MSW management that have been addressed by both the scientific community and policymakers through funded projects. By doing so, the study seeks to guide the scientific community as a knowledge producer and the EU as a key funder. Two Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) models were applied to analyze the themes from two corpora: one representing scientific literature and another focusing on EU-funded projects. Additionally, this analysis was complemented by a quantitative estimation of the similarity between the two corpora, providing a measure of alignment between the scientific community and policymakers. The results generally indicate that the two spheres are aligned and highlight the diversity of topics explored by the scientific community. Nevertheless, it is concluded that there are opportunities for further research on specific topics, such as leaching and the extraction of heavy metals. Additionally, the popularity of topics identified in European Union-funded projects has fluctuated considerably over time, focusing primarily on waste management rather than its prevention. In light of these findings, waste prevention emerges as a promising avenue for future EU-funded research initiatives.

2025

A citywide TD-learning based intelligent traffic signal control for autonomous vehicles: Performance evaluation using SUMO

Authors
Reza, S; Ferreira, MC; Machado, JJM; Tavares, JMRS;

Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS

Abstract
An autonomous vehicle can sense its environment and operate without human involvement. Its adequate management in an intelligent transportation system could significantly reduce traffic congestion and overall travel time in a network. Adaptive traffic signal controller (ATSC) based on multi-agent systems using state-action-reward-state-action (SARSA (lambda)) are well-known state-of-the-art models to manage autonomous vehicles within urban areas. However, this study found inefficient weights updating mechanisms of the conventional SARSA (lambda) models. Therefore, it proposes a Gaussian function to regulate the eligibility trace vector's decay mechanism effectively. On the other hand, an efficient understanding of the state of the traffic environment is crucial for an agent to take optimal actions. The conventional models feed the state values to the agents through the MinMax normalization technique, which sometimes shows less efficiency and robustness. So, this study suggests the MaxAbs scaled state values instead of MinMax to address the problem. Furthermore, the combination of the A-star routing algorithm and proposed model demonstrated a good increase in performance relatively to the conventional SARSA (lambda)-based routing algorithms. The proposed model and the baselines were implemented in a microscopic traffic simulation environment using the SUMO package over a complex real-world-like 21-intersections network to evaluate their performance. The results showed a reduction of the vehicle's average total waiting time and total stops by a mean value of 59.9% and 17.55% compared to the considered baselines. Also, the A-star combined with the proposed controller outperformed the conventional approaches by increasing the vehicle's average trip speed by 3.4%.

2025

Emerging technologies for supporting patients during Hemodialysis: A scoping review

Authors
Martins, AR; Ferreira, MC; Fernandes, CS;

Publication
International Journal of Medical Informatics

Abstract

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