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Publications

Publications by CEGI

2024

Machine learning and cointegration for structural health monitoring of a model under environmental effects

Authors
Rodrigues, M; Miguéis, VL; Felix, C; Rodrigues, C;

Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
Data-driven models have been recognized as powerful tools to support Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). This paper contributes to the literature by exploring two data-driven approaches to detect damage through changes in a set of variables that assess the condition of the structure, and accommodates the challenge that may arise due to the influence of environmental and operational variabilities. This influence is reflected in the response of the structure and can reduce the probability of detecting damage in a structure or increase the probability of signaling false positives. This paper conducts a comparative study between a machine learning detection approach (supported by linear regression, random forest, support vector machine, and neural networks) and a cointegration approach, with the aim of detecting damage as early as possible. This study also contributes to the literature by evaluating the merits of the damage detection methods using real data collected from a small-scale structure. The structure is analyzed in a reference state and a perturbed state in which damage is emulated. The results show that both approaches are able to detect damage within the first 24 h, without ever signaling false positives. The cointegration based approach can notably detect damage after 10 h and 15 minutes, while the machine learning approach takes 20 h 30 m to detect damage.

2024

Machine learning models for short-term demand forecasting in food catering services: A solution to reduce food waste

Authors
Rodrigues, M; Miguéis, V; Freitas, S; Machado, T;

Publication
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

Abstract
Food waste is responsible for severe environmental, social, and economic issues and therefore it is imperative to prevent or at least minimize its generation. The main cause of food waste is poor demand forecasting and so it is essential to improve the accuracy of the tools tasked with these forecasts. The present work proposes four models meant to help food catering services predict food demand accurately and thus avoid overproducing or underproducing. Each model is based on a different machine learning technique. Two baseline models are also proposed to mimic how food catering services estimate future demand and to infer the added value of employing machine learning in this context. To verify the impact of the proposed models, they were tested on data from the three different canteens chosen as case studies. The results show that the models based on the random forest algorithm and the long short-term memory neural network produced the best forecasts, which would lead to a 14% to 52% reduction in the number of wasted meals. Furthermore, by basing their decisions on these forecasts, the food catering services would be able to reduce unmet demand by 3% to 16% when compared with the forecasts of the baseline models. Thus, employing machine learning to forecast future demand can be very beneficial to food catering services. These forecasts can increase the service level of food services and reduce food waste, mitigating its environmental, social, and economic consequences.

2024

Students’ complex trajectories: exploring degree change and time to degree

Authors
Pêgo J.P.; Miguéis V.L.; Soeiro A.;

Publication
International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education

Abstract
The complex trajectories of higher education students are deviations from the regular path due to delays in completing a degree, dropping out, taking breaks, or changing programmes. In this study, we investigated degree changing as a cause of complex student trajectories. We characterised cohorts of students who graduated with a complex trajectory and identified the characteristics that influenced the time to graduation. To support this predictive task, we employed machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests. In addition, we used interpretable techniques such as decision trees to derive managerial insights that could prove useful to decision-makers. We validated the proposed methodology taking the University of Porto (Portugal) as case study. The results show that the time to degree (TTD) of students with and without complex trajectories was different. Moreover, the proposed models effectively predicted TTD, outperforming two benchmark models. The random forest model proved to be the best predictor. Finally, this study shows that the factors that best predict TTD are the median TTD and the admission regime of the programme of destination of transfer students, followed by the admission average of the previous programme. By identifying students who take longer to complete their studies, targeted interventions such as counselling and tutoring can be promoted, potentially improving completion rates and educational outcomes without having to use as many resources.

2024

A literature review of economic efficiency assessments using Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors
Camanho, AS; Silva, MC; Piran, FS; Lacerda, DP;

Publication
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH

Abstract
This paper presents a literature review on Data Envelopment Analysis assessments of economic efficiency, covering methodological developments and empirical applications. We review the seminal models for economic efficiency measurement, involving the optimization of cost, revenue, and profit. The applications of the different modelling approaches are also discussed. Based on a content analysis of papers published between 1978 and 2020 in various sectors, the main areas of study are identified, and the pathways of research developments are discussed. Most studies are based on disaggregated quantity and price data. In addition, the use of panel data is prevalent compared to cross-sectional studies. There is a preponderance of input -oriented studies focused on cost efficiency rather than revenue or profit efficiency. Informed by the historical evolution of economic efficiency assessments portrayed in this review, we suggest directions for future developments. (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

2024

Water Utility Service Quality Index: A customer-centred approach for assessing the quality of service in the water sector

Authors
Vilarinho, H; Pereira, MA; D'Inverno, G; Nóvoa, H; Camanho, AS;

Publication
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES

Abstract
This work delves into the crucial role of service quality in the water supply and sanitation sectur. Despite extensive research and implementation of quality management practices in this sector, a universally accepted definition of quality is still lacking, resulting in varikoza service quality assesunent procedures that are difficult to compam. To address this issue, the World Bank launched the Thility of the Future' (UoF) programme, aiming guide water service providers in their efforts to become future-focused utilities that offer reliable, safe, Inclusive, transparent, and resposesive services through best-fit practices. Building upon the Damework provided by the lof programme, this study proposes the Water Utility Service Quallity Index (WUSOI) composite Indicator that reflects the quality of service provided by water supply and sanitation utilities from a customer perspective. Based on Data Envelopment Analysis, the Benelli-of-the-Douht appenach is employed to assign weights for aggregating the indicators representing the diverse performance dimensions. The study operationalines the WUSOI to assess the quality of Purtuguese wholesale water and wastewater companies using data enflected by the national regulator of water and waste services. A Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis technique, the Deck of Cands method, is used to specify an indicator of transparency from the information made available by the regulated utilities. The results show the effectiveness of this tool for evaluating and measuring service quality at the company level. Additionally, the findings highlight areas for Improvement in the utilities' performance. By enabling companies and regulators to identify areas for improvement, the WUSOI can support the delivery of high-quality services to customers.

2024

The 'Healthcare Access and Quality Index' revisited: A fuzzy data envelopment analysis approach

Authors
Pereira, MA; Camanho, AS;

Publication
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
Nowadays, health systems comprise a series of resources structured to provide healthcare services to meet our health needs. However, premature deaths still occur. To quantify and understand personal healthcare conditions affecting such amenable mortality, the Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQI) was put forward, evaluating 195 countries and territories since 1990. Nevertheless, the literature acknowledges a series of limitations of this framework, such as the drawbacks of using principal component analysis to aggregate individual indicators, the absence of control for financing and environmental conditions, and the presence of a substantial degree of data uncertainty. Accordingly, we propose a methodological alternative to the computation of the HAQI using a novel fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis model to handle the aforementioned shortcomings. We also propose its extension towards the quantification of efficiency (E-HAQI) - in the sense of value for money - by incorporating financial aspects as modelling inputs. This way, we contribute with innovative modelling approaches that can also deal with the high degree of data uncertainty. Furthermore, in a second -stage analysis, the impact of key exogenous factors on healthcare access and quality is assessed via non -parametric hypothesis testing. Our results show positive and significant correlations of both the revisited HAQI and E-HAQI with the original HAQI 2016 dataset. They also reveal a better use of resources by European and Oceanian countries and territories than by Sub-Saharan African ones. Concerning contextual determinants, socio-demographic development, human development, and the type of health system were found to be statistically significant drivers of healthcare access and quality efficiency.

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