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Publications

Publications by Tiago Manuel Campelos

2012

Adaptive Learning in Multiagent Systems: A Forecasting Methodology Based on Error Analysis

Authors
Sousa, TM; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Praca, I; Morais, H;

Publication
HIGHLIGHTS ON PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF AGENTS AND MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS

Abstract
Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents' behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Network, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

2012

Metalearning in ALBidS: A Strategic Bidding System for Electricity Markets

Authors
Pinto, T; Sousa, TM; Vale, Z; Praca, I; Morais, H;

Publication
HIGHLIGHTS ON PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF AGENTS AND MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS

Abstract
Metalearning is a subfield of machine learning with special propensity for dynamic and complex environments, from which it is difficult to extract predictable knowledge. The field of study of this work is the electricity market, which due to the restructuring that recently took place, became an especially complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets' negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner takes advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets' participating players. Using the outputs of each different strategy as inputs, the metalearner creates its own output, considering each strategy with a different weight, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. This simulator provides the chance to test the metalearner in scenarios based on real electricity markets' data.

2012

Adaptive tool for automatic data collection of real electricity markets

Authors
Praca, I; Sousa, TM; Freitas, A; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Silva, M;

Publication
2012 23RD INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON DATABASE AND EXPERT SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS (DEXA)

Abstract
The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in last years, as result of the new challenges that the electricity markets restructuring produced. This restructuring increased the competitiveness of the market, but with it its complexity. The growing complexity and unpredictability of the market's evolution consequently increases the decision making difficulty. Therefore, the intervenient entities are forced to rethink their behaviour and market strategies. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available. These data, concerning innumerous regards of electricity markets operation, is accessible free of charge, and it is essential for understanding and suitably modelling electricity markets. This paper proposes a tool which is able to handle, store and dynamically update data. The development of the proposed tool is expected to be of great importance to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities.

2012

Multi-Agent Simulation of Continental, Regional, and Micro Electricity Markets

Authors
Santos, G; Pinto, T; Morais, H; Vale, Z; Praca, I;

Publication
2012 23RD INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON DATABASE AND EXPERT SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS (DEXA)

Abstract
Renewable based power generation has significantly increased over the last years. However, this process has evolved separately from electricity markets, leading to an inadequacy of the present market models to cope with huge quantities of renewable energy resources, and to take full advantage of the presently existing and the increasing envisaged renewable based and distributed energy resources. This paper proposes the modelling of electricity markets at several levels (continental, regional and micro), taking into account the specific characteristics of the players and resources involved in each level and ensuring that the proposed models accommodate adequate business models able to support the contribution of all the resources in the system, from the largest to the smaller ones. The proposed market models are integrated in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), using the multi agent approach advantages for overcoming the current inadequacy and significant limitations of the presently existing electricity market simulators to deal with the complex electricity market models that must be adopted.

2012

Balancing Market Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

Authors
Santos, G; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Morais, H; Praca, I;

Publication
2012 IEEE POWER AND ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING

Abstract
With the restructuring of the energy sector in industrialized countries there is an increased complexity in market players' interactions along with emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. Decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets are extremely useful to provide players with competitive advantage. In this context arises MASCEM, a multi-agent simulator for competitive electricity markets. It is essential to reinforce MASCEM with the ability to recreate electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, making it able to simulate as many types of markets models and players as possible. This paper presents the development of the Balancing Market in MASCEM. A key module to the study of competitive electricity markets, as it has well defined and distinct characteristics previously implemented.

2012

Intelligent Decision Making in Electricity Markets: Simulated Annealing Q-Learning

Authors
Pinto, T; Sousa, TM; Vale, Z; Morais, H; Praca, I;

Publication
2012 IEEE POWER AND ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING

Abstract
Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents' behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

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