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Publications

Publications by Tiago Manuel Campelos

2015

Solar Intensity Characterization Using Data-Mining to Support Solar Forecasting

Authors
Pinto, T; Santos, G; Marques, L; Sousa, TM; Praca, I; Vale, Z; Abreu, SL;

Publication
Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence, 12th International Conference

Abstract
The increase of renewable based generation as alternative power source brings an added uncertainty to power systems. The intermittent nature of renewable resources, such as wind speed and solar intensity, requires the use of adequate forecast methodologies to support the management and integration of this type of energy resources. This paper proposes a clustering methodology to group historic data according to the data correlation and relevance for different contexts of use. Using the clustering process as a data filter only the most adequate data is used for the training process of forecasting methodologies. Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines are used to test and compare the quality of forecasts when using the proposed methodology to select the training data. Data from the Brazilian city of Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, has been used, including solar irradiance components and other meteorological variables, e.g. temperature, wind speed and humidity. Experimental findings show that using the proposed method to filter data used for training ANN and SVM achieved promising results, outperforming the approaches without clustering.

2015

Agent-Based Smart Grid Market Simulation with Connection to Real Infrastructures

Authors
Santos, G; Pinto, T; Gomes, L; Silva, M; Morais, H; Vale, Z; Praca, I;

Publication
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF AGENTS, MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS, AND SUSTAINABILITY: THE PAAMS COLLECTION, PAAMS 2015

Abstract
The consensus behind Smart Grids (SG) as one of the most promising solutions for the massive integration of renewable energy sources in power systems has led to the practical implementation of several prototypes and pilots that aim at testing and validating SG methodologies. The urgent need to accommodate such resources of distributed and intermittent nature and the impact that a deficient management of energy sources has on the global population require that alternative solutions are experimented. This paper presents a multi-agent based SG simulation platform that is connected to physical resources, so that realistic scenarios with palpable influence on real resources can be simulated. The SG simulator is also connected to the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM), which provides a solid framework for the simulation of restructured electricity markets. Taking advantage on the complementarities between the simulators, a SG market is proposed, and a realistic simulation scenario, using two real buildings acting in a simulated SG is presented.

2015

Dynamic Fuzzy Estimation of Contracts Historic Information Using an Automatic Clustering Methodology

Authors
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;

Publication
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF AGENTS, MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS, AND SUSTAINABILITY: THE PAAMS COLLECTION, PAAMS 2015

Abstract
With the recent liberalization of electricity markets, market players need to decide whether to and how to participate in each electricity market type that is available to them. The search for the best opportunities to sell or buy the required energy is, however, not an easy task. Moreover, the changes that electricity markets are constantly suffering make this an highly dynamic environment, with huge associated unpredictability. Decision support tools become, therefore, essential for market players to be able to take the best advantage from market participation. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the expected prices of bilateral contracts based on the analysis of contracts' historic log. The proposed method is based on the application of a clustering methodology that groups the historic contracts according to their prices' similarity. The optimal number of groups is automatically calculated taking into account the preference for the balance between the estimation error and the number of groups. The centroids of each cluster are used to define a dynamic fuzzy variable that approximates the tendency of contracts' history. The resulting fuzzy variable allows estimating expected prices for contracts instantaneously and approximating missing values in the historic contracts log.

2015

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Authors
Morais, H; Sousa, TM; Santos, G; Pinto, T; Praca, I; Vale, Z;

Publication
INTEGRATED COMPUTER-AIDED ENGINEERING

Abstract
Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

2015

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

Authors
Santos, G; Pinto, T; Morais, H; Sousa, TM; Pereira, IF; Fernandes, R; Praca, I; Vale, Z;

Publication
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT

Abstract
The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets' evolution.

2015

Negotiation context analysis in electricity markets

Authors
Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Sousa, TM; Praca, I;

Publication
ENERGY

Abstract
Contextualization is critical in every decision making process. Adequate responses to problems depend not only on the variables with direct influence on the outcomes, but also on a correct contextualization of the problem regarding the surrounding environment. Electricity markets are dynamic environments with increasing complexity, potentiated by the last decades' restructuring process. Dealing with the growing complexity and competitiveness in this sector brought the need for using decision support tools. A solid example is MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), whose players' decisions are supported by another multiagent system - ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System). ALBidS uses artificial intelligence techniques to endow market players with adaptive learning capabilities that allow them to achieve the best possible results in market negotiations. This paper studies the influence of context awareness in the decision making process of agents acting in electricity markets. A context analysis mechanism is proposed, considering important characteristics of each negotiation period, so that negotiating agents can adapt their acting strategies to different contexts. The main conclusion is that context-dependant responses improve the decision making process. Suiting actions to different contexts allows adapting the behaviour of negotiating entities to different circumstances, resulting in profitable outcomes.

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