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Publications

Publications by Tiago Manuel Campelos

2016

Energy consumption forecasting based on Hybrid Neural Fuzzy Inference System

Authors
Jozi, A; Pinto, T; Praca, I; Silva, F; Teixeira, B; Vale, Z;

Publication
2016 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2016

Abstract
Forecasting the electricity consumption is one of the most challenging tasks for energy domain stakeholders. Having reliable electricity consumption forecasts can help minimizing the cost of electricity and also enable a better control on the electricity tariff. This paper presents a study regarding the forecast of electricity consumption using a methodology based on Hybrid neural Fuzzy Inference System (HyFIS). The proposed approach considers two distinct strategies, namely one strategy using only the electricity consumption as the input of the method, and the second strategy uses a combination of the electricity consumption and the environmental temperature as the input. A case study considering the forecasting of the consumption of an office building using the proposed methodologies is also presented. Results show that the second strategy is able to achieve better results, hence concluding that HyFIS is an appropriate approach to incorporate different sources of information. In this way, the environmental temperature can help the HyFIS method to achieve a more reliable forecast of the electricity consumption. © 2016 IEEE.

2016

GA optimization technique for portfolio optimization of electricity market participation

Authors
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;

Publication
2016 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2016

Abstract
This paper presents a methodology based on genetic Algorithms (GA) to solve the problem of optimal participation in multiple electricity markets. With the emergence of new requirements for electrical power markets, it has become fundamental to develop tools to aid in decision making, understanding the functioning of markets and forecast iterations that occur between the different entities in the market. Artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in the development of these tools. Using artificial intelligence techniques, it is possible to simulate the different existing players in the market, to enable these players to be adaptive to any situation, and to model any type of trading. Artificial intelligence based metaheuristic optimization tools allow solving problems in a short time, and with very close results to those that deterministic techniques are able to achieve, at the cost of a high execution time. The achieved results, using a simulation scenario based on real data from the Iberian electricity market, show that the proposed method is able to reach better results than previous implementations of a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and a Simulated Annealing (SA) methods, while achieving very similar objective function results to those of a deterministic approach, in a much faster execution time. © 2016 IEEE.

2016

Generation of realistic scenarios for multi-agent simulation of electricity markets

Authors
Silva, F; Teixeira, B; Pinto, T; Santos, G; Vale, Z; Praca, I;

Publication
ENERGY

Abstract
Most market operators provide daily data on several market processes, including the results of all market transactions. The use of such data by electricity market simulators is essential for simulations quality, enabling the modelling of market behaviour in a much more realistic and efficient way. RealScen (Realistic Scenarios Generator) is a tool that creates realistic scenarios according to the purpose of the simulation: representing reality as it is, or on a smaller scale but still as representative as possible. This paper presents a novel methodology that enables RealScen to collect real electricity markets information and using it to represent market participants, as well as modelling their characteristics and behaviours. This is done using data analysis combined with artificial intelligence. This paper analyses the way players' characteristics are modelled, particularly in their representation in a smaller scale, simplifying the simulation while maintaining the quality of results. A study is also conducted, comparing real electricity market values with the market results achieved using the generated scenarios. The conducted study shows that the scenarios can fully represent the reality, or approximate it through a reduced number of representative software agents. As a result, the proposed methodology enables RealScen to represent markets behaviour, allowing the study and understanding of the interactions between market entities, and the study of new markets by assuring the realism of simulations.

2016

Optimization of electricity markets participation with QPSO

Authors
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Vale, Z;

Publication
International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM

Abstract
All around the world, the electric sector has suffered significant changes. With these alterations, electrical systems have become international, with several countries connected by a system where the management is done in common grounds. With the incorporation of large scale distributed generation, competitiveness in electrical markets has increased as small generators unite in order to be able to compete with large producers. In this game where the main objective is to win, and the premium is money it is necessary to be keen to be able to sell the available electricity at the best possible prices. With the objective of supporting players' decisions, decision support tools play a crucial role. These tools enable market players with suggestions of actions to increase their advantage from market participation. This paper presents a Quantum-based Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO) methodology to solve the problem of optimal participation in multiple electricity markets. © 2016 IEEE.

2019

Genetic Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization with Weighted Sum Approach

Authors
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Vale, Z; Corchado, JM; Soares, J; Lezama, F;

Publication
Proceedings of the 2018 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2018

Abstract
The use of metaheuristics to solve real-life problems has increased in recent years since they are easy to implement, and the problems become easy to model when applying metaheuristic approaches. However, arguably the most important aspect is the simulation time since results can be obtained from metaheuristic methods in a much smaller time, and with a good approximation to the results obtained with exact methods. In this work, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) metaheuristic is adapted and apphed to solve the optimization of electricity markets participation portfolios. This work considers a multiobjective model that incorporates the calculation of the profit and the risk incurred in the electricity negotiations. Results of the proposed approach are compared to those achieved with an exact method, and it can be concluded that the proposed GA model can achieve very close results to those of the deterministic approach, in much quicker simulation time. © 2018 IEEE.

2017

Automatic selection of optimization algorithms for energy resource scheduling using a case-based reasoning system

Authors
Faia, R; Pinto, T; Sousa, T; Vale, Z; Corchado, JM;

Publication
CEUR Workshop Proceedings

Abstract
This paper proposes a case-based reasoning methodology to automatically choose the most appropriate optimization algorithms and respective parameterizations to solve the problem of optimal resource scheduling in smart energy grids. The optimal resource scheduling is, however, a heavy computation problem, which deals with a large number of variables. Moreover, depending on the time horizon of this optimization, fast response times are usually required, which makes it impossible to apply traditional exact optimization methods. For this reason, the application of metaheuristic methods is the natural solution, providing near-optimal solutions in a much faster execution time. Choosing which optimization approaches to apply in each time is the focus of this work, considering the requirements for each problem and the information of previous executions. A case-based reasoning methodology is proposed, considering previous cases of execution of different optimization approaches for different problems. A fuzzy logic approach is used to adapt the solutions considering the balance between execution time and quality of results Copyright © 2017 for this paper by its authors.

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