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Publications

Publications by CPES

2022

A Systematic Review of Applications of Machine Learning Techniques for Wildfire Management Decision Support

Authors
Bot, K; Borges, JG;

Publication
INVENTIONS

Abstract
Wildfires threaten and kill people, destroy urban and rural property, degrade air quality, ravage forest ecosystems, and contribute to global warming. Wildfire management decision support models are thus important for avoiding or mitigating the effects of these events. In this context, this paper aims at providing a review of recent applications of machine learning methods for wildfire management decision support. The emphasis is on providing a summary of these applications with a classification according to the case study type, machine learning method, case study location, and performance metrics. The review considers documents published in the last four years, using a sample of 135 documents (review articles and research articles). It is concluded that the adoption of machine learning methods may contribute to enhancing support in different fire management phases.

2022

Optimal Coordination of Protection Devices in Distribution Networks With Distributed Energy Resources and Microgrids

Authors
Reiz, C; Leite, JB;

Publication
IEEE ACCESS

Abstract
Microgrids are promising to enhance power distribution systems' efficiency, quality, sustainability, and reliability. However, microgrids operation can impose several challenges to traditional protection schemes, like changes in the power flow direction and an increase in short-circuit currents. Microgrids can include several distributed generation technologies with different behaviours during short-circuit conditions, requiring additional protection schemes and devices. In this way, the optimized coordination of reclosers and fuses in distribution networks with directional overcurrent relays, which operate as interconnection devices, might overcome many imposed protection challenges. Regarding different generation technologies, voltage-restrained overcurrent relays and frequency relays are presented as local microgrid protection for rotative and inverter-based distributed generators, respectively. The optimized coordination of these protection devices maximizes microgrid benefits and minimizes operation drawbacks by reducing interruptions impacts and energy not supplied to consumers. This work proposes, thus, a mathematical model for the optimal coordination of protection devices in distribution networks with distributed energy resources operating in grid-connected and islanded modes. The minimization technique of operating times using an elitist genetic algorithm with variable crossover and mutation processes is proposed, as well. The results show adequate coordination using passive and low-cost protection devices.

2022

Benchmarking of Load Forecasting Methods Using Residential Smart Meter Data

Authors
Sousa, JC; Bernardo, H;

Publication
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL

Abstract
As the access to consumption data available in household smart meters is now very common in several developed countries, this kind of information is assuming a providential role for different players in the energy sector. The proposed study was applied to data available from the Smart Meter Energy Consumption Data in the London Households dataset, provided by UK Power Networks, containing half-hourly readings from an original sample of 5567 households (71 households were hereby carefully selected after a justified filtering process). The main aim is to forecast the day-ahead load profile, based only on previous load values and some auxiliary variables. During this research different forecasting models are applied, tested and compared to allow comprehensive analyses integrating forecasting accuracy, processing times and the interpretation of the most influential features in each case. The selected models are based on Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, Random Forests and Artificial Neural Networks, and the accuracies resulted from each model are compared and confronted with a baseline (Naive model). The different forecasting approaches being evaluated have been revealed to be effective, ensuring a mean reduction of 15% in Mean Absolute Error when compared to the baseline. Artificial Neural Networks proved to be the most accurate model for a major part of the residential consumers.

2022

DG Locational Incremental Contribution to Grid Supply Level

Authors
Hernando-Gil, I; Zhang, Z; Ndawula, M; Djokic, S;

Publication
IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications

Abstract

2022

Design and Feasibility Study of Hydrogen-Based Hybrid Microgrids for LV Residential Services

Authors
Sarwar F.A.; Hernando-Gil I.; Vechiu I.; Latil S.; Baudoin S.; Gu C.;

Publication
IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe

Abstract
With the increased penetration of renewables, energy storage has become a critical issue in microgrid and small household applications. Accordingly, this paper undertakes a feasability study the varying limitations from conventional batteries in residential buildings, such as capacity-loss over time and aging, as well as the alternative application and challenges of hydrogen-based storage for the domestic sector. The paper considers a test case study where an analysis is performed on the practicality of hydrogen-based storage, in addition to lithium-ion battery storage. Various scenarios are considered based on solar installation sizes, self-consumption, battery capacity, autonomy rates and grid extraction. A detailed analysis is carried out on both thermal and electrical demands of a residential household, which also includes the energy performance and applications of heat pumps. While the obtained results from various scenarios are compared and analysed, these anticipate that the potential integration of hydrogen can improve the autonomy rate of residential buildings, The cost of hydrogen storage is expected to reduce significantly, opening opportunities for hydrogen application.

2022

Real option-based network investment assessment considering energy storage systems under long-term demand uncertainties

Authors
Cheng S.; Gu C.; Hernando-Gil I.; Li S.; Li F.;

Publication
IET Renewable Power Generation

Abstract
This paper proposes a novel real option (RO)-based network investment assessment method to quantify the flexibility value of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in distribution network planning (DNP). It applied geometric Brownian motion (GBM) to simulate the long-term load growth uncertainty. Compared with commonly used stochastic models (e.g. normal probability model) that assume a constant variance, it reflects the fact that from the point of prediction, uncertainty would increase as time elapses. Hence, it avoids the bias of traditional net present value (NPV) frameworks towards lumpy investments that cannot provide strategic flexibility relative to more flexible alternatives. It is for the first time to adopt the option pricing method to evaluate the flexibility value of distribution network planning strategies. To optimize the planning scheme, this paper compares the static NPVs and flexibility values of different investment strategies. A 33-bus system is used to verify the effectiveness of the formulated model. Results indicate that flexibility values of BESS are of utmost importance to DNP under demand growth uncertainties. It provides an analytical tool to quantify the flexibility of planning measures and evaluate the well-timed investment of BESS, thus supporting network operators to facilitate flexibility services and hedge risks from the negative impact of long-term uncertainty.

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