2020
Authors
Rodrigues, J; Moreira, C; Lopes, JP;
Publication
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Abstract
This paper presents two innovative Fault-Ride-Through (FRT) strategies suited for Smart-Transformers (ST) supplying hybrid AC/DC distribution grids within a microgrid environment. The first strategy is suited for ST without a local energy storage, where its Medium Voltage (MV) inverter is operated in grid-tied mode. The proposed approach relies on the voltage sensitivity of resources connected to the ST fed distribution networks aiming to limit the MV inverter current. The second strategy is suited for ST incorporating local energy storage and operating its MV inverter in grid-forming mode, thus enabling islanding operation of a MV grid section. The proposed FRT strategy aims to regulate ST's output voltage by calculating the maximum voltage drop in the coupling filter in order to control the output current. The proposed strategies are evaluated exploiting appropriated simulation models and extensive operating conditions.
2020
Authors
Lotfi, M; Javadi, M; Osorio, GJ; Monteiro, C; Catalao, JPS;
Publication
ENERGIES
Abstract
A novel ensemble algorithm based on kernel density estimation (KDE) is proposed to forecast distributed generation (DG) from renewable energy sources (RES). The proposed method relies solely on publicly available historical input variables (e.g., meteorological forecasts) and the corresponding local output (e.g., recorded power generation). Given a new case (with forecasted meteorological variables), the resulting power generation is forecasted. This is performed by calculating a KDE-based similarity index to determine a set of most similar cases from the historical dataset. Then, the outputs of the most similar cases are used to calculate an ensemble prediction. The method is tested using historical weather forecasts and recorded generation of a PV installation in Portugal. Despite only being given averaged data as input, the algorithm is shown to be capable of predicting uncertainties associated with high frequency weather variations, outperforming deterministic predictions based on solar irradiance forecasts. Moreover, the algorithm is shown to outperform a neural network (NN) in most test cases while being exceptionally faster (32 times). Given that the proposed model only relies on public locally-metered data, it is a convenient tool for DG owners/operators to effectively forecast their expected generation without depending on private/proprietary data or divulging their own.
2020
Authors
Monteiro, C; Ramirez Rosado, IJ; Fernandez Jimenez, LA;
Publication
E3S Web of Conferences
Abstract
This paper presents an original trading strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets. The strategy applies a medium-term electricity price forecasting model to predict the monthly average spot price which is used to evaluate the Risk Premium for a physical delivery under a monthly electricity futures contract. The proposed trading strategy aims to provide an advantage relatively to the traditional strategy of electricity buyers (used as benchmark), anticipating the good/wrong decision of buying electricity in the futures market instead in the day-ahead market. The mid-term monthly average spot price forecasting model, which supports the trading strategy, uses only information available from futures and spot markets at the decision moment. Both the new trading strategy and the monthly average spot price forecasting model, proposed in this paper, have been successfully tested with historical data of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), although they could be applied to other electricity markets. © 2020 The Authors, published by EDP Sciences.
2020
Authors
Monteiro, C; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA; Ramirez Rosado, IJ;
Publication
ENERGIES
Abstract
This article presents an original predictive strategy, based on a new mid-term forecasting model, to be used for trading physical electricity futures. The forecasting model is used to predict the average spot price, which is used to estimate the Risk Premium corresponding to electricity futures trade operations with a physical delivery. A feed-forward neural network trained with the extreme learning machine algorithm is used as the initial implementation of the forecasting model. The predictive strategy and the forecasting model only need information available from electricity derivatives and spot markets at the time of negotiation. In this paper, the predictive trading strategy has been applied successfully to the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The forecasting model was applied for the six types of maturities available for monthly futures in the MIBEL, from 1 to 6 months ahead. The forecasting model was trained with MIBEL price data corresponding to 44 months and the performances of the forecasting model and of the predictive strategy were tested with data corresponding to a further 12 months. Furthermore, a simpler forecasting model and three benchmark trading strategies are also presented and evaluated using the Risk Premium in the testing period, for comparative purposes. The results prove the advantages of the predictive strategy, even using the simpler forecasting model, which showed improvements over the conventional benchmark trading strategy, evincing an interesting hedging potential for electricity futures trading.
2020
Authors
Lotfi, M; Monteiro, C; Shafie-khah, M; Catalão, JP;
Publication
Blockchain-based Smart Grids
Abstract
2020
Authors
Ghahderijani, MM; Camacho, A; Moreira, C; Castilla, M; Garcia de Vicuna, LG;
Publication
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY
Abstract
Voltage imbalances are one of the most severe challenges in electrical networks, which negatively affect their loads and other connected equipment. This paper proposes a voltage support control strategy to mitigate the voltage imbalance in inverter-based low voltage distribution networks. The control scheme is derived taking in mind the following control objectives: a) to increase the positive sequence voltage as much as possible, b) to decrease the negative sequence voltage as much as possible, c) to inject the power generated by the primary source, and d) to minimize the output current of the inverter. The innovative contribution of the proposed solution is based on the design of a control algorithm that meets the aforementioned objectives without resorting to communications with other grid components. The theoretical results are experimentally validated by selected tests on a laboratory setup with X/R ratio close to one.
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