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Publications

Publications by CPES

2020

Simulating Tariff Impact in Electrical Energy Consumption Profiles With Conditional Variational Autoencoders

Authors
Bregere, M; Bessa, RJ;

Publication
IEEE ACCESS

Abstract
The implementation of efficient demand response (DR) programs for household electricity consumption would benefit from data-driven methods capable of simulating the impact of different tariffs schemes. This paper proposes a novel method based on conditional variational autoencoders (CVAE) to generate, from an electricity tariff profile combined with weather and calendar variables, daily consumption profiles of consumers segmented in different clusters. First, a large set of consumers is gathered into clusters according to their consumption behavior and price-responsiveness. The clustering method is based on a causality model that measures the effect of a specific tariff on the consumption level. Then, daily electrical energy consumption profiles are generated for each cluster with CVAE. This non-parametric approach is compared to a semi-parametric data generator based on generalized additive models. Experiments in a publicly available data set show that, the proposed method presents comparable performance to the semi-parametric one when it comes to generating the average value of the original data (13% difference in root mean square error). The main contribution from this new method is the capacity to reproduce rebound and side effects in the generated consumption profiles. Indeed, the application of a special electricity tariff over a time window may also affect consumption outside this time window. Another contribution is that the proposed clustering approach is capturing the reaction to a tariff change. When compared to a clustering method with classical features (min, max and average consumption), the improvement in the Calinski-Harabasz index was 128% for consumers associated with tariff changes.

2020

Big data analytics for future electricity grids

Authors
Kezunovic, M; Pinson, P; Obradovic, Z; Grijalva, S; Hong, T; Bessa, R;

Publication
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Abstract
This paper provides a survey of big data analytics applications and associated implementation issues. The emphasis is placed on applications that are novel and have demonstrated value to the industry, as illustrated using field data and practical applications. The paper reflects on the lessons learned from initial implementations, as well as ideas that are yet to be explored. The various data science trends treated in the literature are outlined, while experiences from applying them in the electricity grid setting are emphasized to pave the way for future applications. The paper ends with opportunities and challenges, as well as implementation goals and strategies for achieving impactful outcomes.

2020

Architecture model for a holistic and interoperable digital energy management platform

Authors
Senna, PP; Almeida, AH; Barros, AC; Bessa, RJ; Azevedo, AL;

Publication
Procedia Manufacturing

Abstract
The modern digital era is characterized by a plethora of emerging technologies, methodologies and techniques that are employed in the manufacturing industries with intent to improve productivity, to optimize processes and to reduce operational costs. Yet, algorithms and methodological approaches for improvement of energy consumption and environmental impact are not integrated with the current operational and planning tools used by manufacturing companies. One possible reason for this is the difficulty in bridging the gap between the most advanced energy related ICT tools, developed within the scope of the industry 4.0 era, and the legacy systems that support most manufacturing operational and planning processes. Consequently, this paper proposes a conceptual architecture model for a digital energy management platform, which is comprised of an IIoT-based platform, strongly supported by energy digital twin for interoperability and integrated with AI-based energy data-driven services. This conceptual architecture model enables companies to analyse their energy consumption behaviour, which allows for the understanding of the synergies among the variables that affect the energy demand, and to integrate this energy intelligence with their legacy systems in order to achieve a more sustainable energy demand. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the FAIM 2021.

2020

Power-to-Peer: A blockchain P2P post-delivery bilateral local energy market

Authors
Mello, J; Villar, J; Bessa, RJ; Lopes, M; Martins, J; Pinto, M;

Publication
International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM

Abstract
This paper proposes a Local Energy Market using a P2P blockchain-powered marketplace where agents bilaterally trade energy after the consumption and production period, and not before, as usual in electricity market design. The EU and MIBEL regulatory framework for Renewable Energy Communities potentially creates space for such a market, but some improvements in the settlement procedures and agent's participation must be met. © 2020 IEEE.

2020

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

Authors
Giebel, G; Shaw, W; Frank, H; Pinson, P; Draxl, C; Zack, J; Möhrlen, C; Kariniotakis, G; Bessa, R;

Publication

Abstract
<p>Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task on Wind Power Forecasting organises international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, ...), forecast vendors and forecast users.<br>Collaboration is open to IEA Wind member states, 12 countries are already therein.</p><p>The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks for NWP models. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions.</p><p>The main result is the IEA Recommended Practice for Selecting Renewable Power Forecasting Solutions. This document in three parts (Forecast solution selection process, and Designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials, and their Evaluation) takes its outset from the recurrent problem at forecast user companies of how to choose a forecast vendor. The first report describes how to tackle the general situation, while the second report specifically describes how to set up a forecasting trial so that the result is what the client intended. Many of the pitfalls which we have seen over the years, are avoided. <br><br>Other results include a paper on possible uses of uncertainty forecasts, an assessment of the uncertainty chain within the forecasts, and meteorological data on an information portal for wind power forecasting. This meteorological data is used for a benchmark exercise, to be announced at the conference. The poster will present the latest developments from the Task, and announce the next activities.</p>

2020

Smart4RES: Towards next generation forecasting tools of renewable energy production

Authors
Kariniotakis, G; Camal, S; Bessa, R; Pinson, P; Giebel, G; Libois, Q; Legrand, R; Lange, M; Wilbert, S; Nouri, B; Neto, A; Verzijlbergh, R; Sauba, G; Sideratos, G; Korka, E; Petit, S;

Publication

Abstract
<p>The aim of this paper is to present the <strong>objectives, research directions and first highlight results</strong> of the <strong>Smart4RES</strong> project, which was launched in November 2019, under the <strong>Horizon 2020</strong> Framework Programme. Smart4RES is a research project that aims to bring substantial performance improvements to the whole model and value chain in r<strong>enewable energy (RES) forecasting</strong>, with particular emphasis placed on optimizing <strong>synergies with storage and to support power system operation and participation in electricity markets</strong>. For that, it concentrates on a number of disruptive proposals to support ambitious objectives for the future of renewable energy forecasting. This is thought of in a context with steady increase in the quantity of data being collected and computational capabilities. And, this comes in combination with recent advances in <strong>data science</strong> and approaches to <strong>meteorological forecasting</strong>. Smart4RES concentrates on novel developments towards <strong>very high-resolution and dedicated weather forecasting solutions</strong>. It makes <strong>optimal use of varied and distributed sources of data</strong> e.g. remote sensing (sky imagers, satellites, etc), power and meteorological measurements, as well as high-resolution weather forecasts, to yield high-quality and seamless approaches to renewable energy forecasting. The project accommodates the fact that all these sources of data are distributed geographically and in terms of ownership, with current restrictions preventing sharing. Novel alternative approaches are to be developed and evaluated to reach optimal forecast accuracy in that context, including <strong>distributed and privacy-preserving learning and forecasting methods</strong>, as well as the advent of platform-enabled <strong>data-markets</strong>, with associated pricing strategies. Smart4RES places a strong emphasis on <strong>maximizing the value from the use of forecasts in applications</strong> through advanced decision making and optimization approaches. This also goes through approaches to streamline the definition of new forecasting products balancing the complexity of forecast information and the need of forecast users. Focus is on developing models for applications involving storage, the provision of ancillary services, as well as market participation.</p>

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