Abstract
This paper proposes a novel real option (RO)-based network investment assessment method to quantify the flexibility value of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in distribution network planning (DNP). It applied geometric Brownian motion (GBM) to simulate the long-term load growth uncertainty. Compared with commonly used stochastic models (e.g. normal probability model) that assume a constant variance, it reflects the fact that from the point of prediction, uncertainty would increase as time elapses. Hence, it avoids the bias of traditional net present value (NPV) frameworks towards lumpy investments that cannot provide strategic flexibility relative to more flexible alternatives. It is for the first time to adopt the option pricing method to evaluate the flexibility value of distribution network planning strategies. To optimize the planning scheme, this paper compares the static NPVs and flexibility values of different investment strategies. A 33-bus system is used to verify the effectiveness of the formulated model. Results indicate that flexibility values of BESS are of utmost importance to DNP under demand growth uncertainties. It provides an analytical tool to quantify the flexibility of planning measures and evaluate the well-timed investment of BESS, thus supporting network operators to facilitate flexibility services and hedge risks from the negative impact of long-term uncertainty.

Abstract

Abstract
During the past few years the transport matrix received many policies to push for the sector decarbonization. The electric vehicles and charging infrastructure increased a lot motivated by European Union directives and countries legislations, becoming national policies framework. Considering the electricity market dynamics, the electrification of transport created a new challenge going forward. In this context, this paper presents a multivariate analysis of electricity commercialization and charging infrastructure to evaluate the real state of electricity mobility and design future opportunities. The analysis uses tariffs, commercialization models, charging services and economic indicators of four countries. A comprehensive simulation model estimates the total electric mobility bill per country and the portion of the average salary spent with the car charging. Even considering the best scenario, consumers from Portugal commit almost four percent of its average wage while Norway commit only one percent. The results reveal that long-term commitment with energy planning, generation and energy matrix expansion, implies on lower energy costs; better economic actions also imply on lower energy expenditure for costumer. The hourly tariffs are important alternatives to reduce energy costs and manage demand helping network operators to plan and manage the energy system. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract