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Publications

Publications by Ricardo Jorge Bessa

2019

Data Economy for Prosumers in a Smart Grid Ecosystem

Authors
Bessa, RJ; Rua, D; Abreu, C; Machado, P; Andrade, JR; Pinto, R; Gonçalves, C; Reis, M;

Publication
CoRR

Abstract

2020

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

Authors
Giebel, G; Shaw, W; Frank, H; Pinson, P; Draxl, C; Zack, J; Möhrlen, C; Kariniotakis, G; Bessa, R;

Publication

Abstract
<p>Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task on Wind Power Forecasting organises international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, ...), forecast vendors and forecast users.<br>Collaboration is open to IEA Wind member states, 12 countries are already therein.</p><p>The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks for NWP models. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions.</p><p>The main result is the IEA Recommended Practice for Selecting Renewable Power Forecasting Solutions. This document in three parts (Forecast solution selection process, and Designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials, and their Evaluation) takes its outset from the recurrent problem at forecast user companies of how to choose a forecast vendor. The first report describes how to tackle the general situation, while the second report specifically describes how to set up a forecasting trial so that the result is what the client intended. Many of the pitfalls which we have seen over the years, are avoided. <br><br>Other results include a paper on possible uses of uncertainty forecasts, an assessment of the uncertainty chain within the forecasts, and meteorological data on an information portal for wind power forecasting. This meteorological data is used for a benchmark exercise, to be announced at the conference. The poster will present the latest developments from the Task, and announce the next activities.</p>

2020

Smart4RES: Towards next generation forecasting tools of renewable energy production

Authors
Kariniotakis, G; Camal, S; Bessa, R; Pinson, P; Giebel, G; Libois, Q; Legrand, R; Lange, M; Wilbert, S; Nouri, B; Neto, A; Verzijlbergh, R; Sauba, G; Sideratos, G; Korka, E; Petit, S;

Publication

Abstract
<p>The aim of this paper is to present the <strong>objectives, research directions and first highlight results</strong> of the <strong>Smart4RES</strong> project, which was launched in November 2019, under the <strong>Horizon 2020</strong> Framework Programme. Smart4RES is a research project that aims to bring substantial performance improvements to the whole model and value chain in r<strong>enewable energy (RES) forecasting</strong>, with particular emphasis placed on optimizing <strong>synergies with storage and to support power system operation and participation in electricity markets</strong>. For that, it concentrates on a number of disruptive proposals to support ambitious objectives for the future of renewable energy forecasting. This is thought of in a context with steady increase in the quantity of data being collected and computational capabilities. And, this comes in combination with recent advances in <strong>data science</strong> and approaches to <strong>meteorological forecasting</strong>. Smart4RES concentrates on novel developments towards <strong>very high-resolution and dedicated weather forecasting solutions</strong>. It makes <strong>optimal use of varied and distributed sources of data</strong> e.g. remote sensing (sky imagers, satellites, etc), power and meteorological measurements, as well as high-resolution weather forecasts, to yield high-quality and seamless approaches to renewable energy forecasting. The project accommodates the fact that all these sources of data are distributed geographically and in terms of ownership, with current restrictions preventing sharing. Novel alternative approaches are to be developed and evaluated to reach optimal forecast accuracy in that context, including <strong>distributed and privacy-preserving learning and forecasting methods</strong>, as well as the advent of platform-enabled <strong>data-markets</strong>, with associated pricing strategies. Smart4RES places a strong emphasis on <strong>maximizing the value from the use of forecasts in applications</strong> through advanced decision making and optimization approaches. This also goes through approaches to streamline the definition of new forecasting products balancing the complexity of forecast information and the need of forecast users. Focus is on developing models for applications involving storage, the provision of ancillary services, as well as market participation.</p>

2023

ENEIDA DEEPGRID®: BRINGING THE OPERATIONAL AWARENESS TO THE LV GRID

Authors
Couto, R; Faria, J; Oliveira, J; Sampaio, G; Bessa, R; Rodrigues, F; Santos, R;

Publication
IET Conference Proceedings

Abstract
This paper presents a novel solution integrated into the Eneida DeepGrid® platform for real-time voltage and active power estimation in low voltage grids. The tool utilizes smart grid infrastructure data, including historical data, real-time measurements from a subset of meters, and exogenous information such as weather forecasts and dynamic price signals. Unlike traditional methods, the solution does not require electrical or topological characterization and is not affected by observability issues. The performance of the tool was evaluated through a case study using 10 real networks located in Portugal, with results showing high estimation accuracy, even under scenarios of low smart meter coverage. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2023.

2024

A review on the decarbonization of high-performance computing centers

Authors
Silva, CA; Vilaça, R; Pereira, A; Bessa, RJ;

Publication
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

Abstract
High-performance computing relies on performance-oriented infrastructures with access to powerful computing resources to complete tasks that contribute to solve complex problems in society. The intensive use of resources and the increase in service demand due to emerging fields of science, combined with the exascale paradigm, climate change concerns, and rising energy costs, ultimately means that the decarbonization of these centers is key to improve their environmental and financial performance. Therefore, a review on the main opportunities and challenges for the decarbonization of high-performance computing centers is essential to help decision-makers, operators and users contribute to a more sustainable computing ecosystem. It was found that state-of-the-art supercomputers are growing in computing power, but are combining different measures to meet sustainability concerns, namely going beyond energy efficiency measures and evolving simultaneously in terms of energy and information technology infrastructure. It was also shown that policy and multiple entities are now targeting specifically HPC, and that identifying synergies with the energy sector can reveal new revenue streams, but also enable a smoother integration of these centers in energy systems. Computing-intensive users can continue to pursue their scientific research, but participating more actively in the decarbonization process, in cooperation with computing service providers. Overall, many opportunities, but also challenges, were identified, to decrease carbon emissions in a sector mostly concerned with improving hardware performance.

2023

Operating AI systems in the electricity sector under European's AI Act - Insights on compliance costs, profitability frontiers and extraterritorial effects

Authors
Heymann, F; Parginos, K; Bessa, RJ; Galus, M;

Publication
ENERGY REPORTS

Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) brings great potential but also risks to the electricity industry. Following the EU's current regulatory proposal, the EU Regulation for Artificial Intelligence (AI Act), there will be direct, potentially adverse effects on companies of the electricity industry in Europe and beyond, as well as those active in the development of AI systems. In this paper, we develop a replicable framework for estimating compliance costs for different electricity market agents that will need to comply with the numerous requirements the AI Act imposes. The electricity systems of Austria, Greece and Switzerland are used as case-studies. We estimate annual, aggregated costs for electricity market agents ranging from less than one million to almost 200 million Euros per country, depending on compliance costs scenarios. Results suggest that a profit growth of 10% through AI utilization is needed to offset the highest added compliance cost of the AI Act on electricity market agents. Eventually, we further show how to assess the regional differences of these costs added to system operation, providing spatially disaggregated compliance costs estimates that consider the structural differences of the electricity industry within 26 Swiss cantons.

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