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Publications

Publications by Ricardo Jorge Bessa

2015

Power-to-Gas potential assessment of Portugal under special consideration of LCOE

Authors
Heymann, F; Bessa, R;

Publication
2015 IEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, PowerTech 2015

Abstract
Power-to-Gas can contribute with valuable balancing power and seasonal storage capacity to future power systems. In Portugal, forecasts for 2020 show significant excess of renewable energy generation that can be transformed by power-to-gas technology and fed into the natural gas infrastructure. This work suggests an innovative approach to assess future power-togas integration potentials at the national level, focusing on wind power. Following a geographical distance analysis, a first economical estimation of future energy transformation costs is made with the help of Levelized Costs of Energy (LCOE). © 2015 IEEE.

2015

Probabilistic solar power forecasting in smart grids using distributed information

Authors
Bessa, RJ; Trindade, A; Silva, CSP; Miranda, V;

Publication
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS

Abstract
The deployment of Smart Grid technologies opens new opportunities to develop new forecasting and optimization techniques. The growth of solar power penetration in distribution grids imposes the use of solar power forecasts as inputs in advanced grid management functions. This paper proposes a new forecasting algorithm for 6 h ahead based on the vector autoregression framework, which combines distributed time series information collected by the Smart Grid infrastructure. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for the residential solar photovoltaic (PV) and secondary substation levels. The test case consists of 44 micro-generation units and 10 secondary substations from the Smart Grid pilot in Evora, Portugal. The benchmark model is the well-known autoregressive forecasting method (univariate approach). The average improvement in terms of root mean square error (point forecast evaluation) and continuous ranking probability score (probabilistic forecast evaluation) for the first 3 lead-times was between 8% and 12%, and between 1.4% and 5.9%, respectively. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

2016

SENSIBLE project: Évora demonstrator enabling energy storage and energy management creating value for grid and customers

Authors
Mendes, G; Gouveia, C; Guerra, F; Ferreira, A; Murphy O'connor, C; Rocha, L; Bessa, R; Albuquerque, S;

Publication
IET Conference Publications

Abstract
This paper aims to discuss both the ICT and grid architectures of the Évora Demonstrator under the project SENSIBLE. The demonstrator is focused on testing grid management functions under normal and emergency operation in a rural low voltage grid, taking advantage of electrochemical, electromechanical and thermal storage technologies as well as renewable energy sources (photovoltaics) that will be deployed at both distribution grid and at clients' electrical installation. In addition, the community engagement strategy is presented since it is crucial for the full implementation of the project.

2014

Solar Power Forecasting in Smart Grids Using Distributed Information

Authors
Bessa, RJ; Trindade, A; Monteiro, A; Miranda, V; Silva, CSP;

Publication
2014 POWER SYSTEMS COMPUTATION CONFERENCE (PSCC)

Abstract
The growing penetration of solar power technology at low voltage (LV) level introduces new challenges in the distribution grid operation. Across the world, Distribution System Operators (DSO) are implementing the Smart Grid concept and one key function, in this new paradigm, is solar power forecasting. This paper presents a new forecasting framework, based on vector autoregression theory, that combines spatial-temporal data collected by smart meters and distribution transformer controllers to produce six-hour-ahead forecasts at the residential solar photovoltaic (PV) and secondary substation (i.e., MV/LV substation) levels. This framework has been tested for 44 micro-generation units and 10 secondary substations from the Smart Grid pilot in Evora, Portugal (one demonstration site of the EU Project SuSTAINABLE). A comparison was made with the well-known Autoregressive forecasting Model (AR - univariate model) leading to an improvement between 8% and 12% for the first 3 lead-times.

2017

Solar power forecasting with sparse vector autoregression structures

Authors
Cavalcante, L; Bessa, RJ;

Publication
2017 IEEE MANCHESTER POWERTECH

Abstract
The strong growth that is felt at the level of photovoltaic (PV) power generation craves for more sophisticated and accurate forecasting methods that could be able to support its proper integration into the energy distribution network. Through the combination of the vector autoregression model (VAR) with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework, a set of sparse VAR structures can be obtained in order to capture the dynamic of the underlying system. The robust and efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), well known for its great ability dealing with high-dimensional data (scalability and fast convergence), is applied to fit the resulting LASSO-VAR variants. This spatial-temporal forecasting methodology has been tested, using 1-hour and 15-minutes resolution, for 44 microgeneration units time-series located in a city in Portugal. A comparison with the conventional autoregressive (AR) model is performed leading to an improvement up to 11%.

2013

Global against divided optimization for the participation of an EV aggregator in the day-ahead electricity market. Part I: Theory

Authors
Bessa, RJ; Matos, MA;

Publication
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Abstract
This paper addresses the bidding problem faced by an electric vehicles (EV) aggregation agent when participating in the day-ahead electrical energy market. Two alternative optimization approaches, global and divided, with the same goal (i.e. solve the same problem) are described. The difference is on how information about EV is modeled. The global approach uses aggregated values of the EV variables and the optimization model determines the bids exclusively based on total values. The divided approach uses individual information from each EV. In both approaches, statistical forecasting methods are formulated for the EV variables. After the day-ahead bidding, a second phase (named operational management) is required for mitigating the deviation between accepted bids and consumed electrical energy for EV charging. A sequential linear optimization problem is formulated for minimizing the deviation costs. This chain of algorithms provides to the EV aggregation agent a pathway to move to the smart-grid paradigm where load dispatch is a possibility.

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