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Publications

2025

Success Factors for Public Sector Information Systems Projects

Authors
Gonçalves, A; Varajão, J; Moura Oliveira, P; Moura, I;

Publication
Digital Government: Research and Practice

Abstract
Information Systems (IS) projects are critical for organizational development, both in the private and public sectors. The relevance and complexity inherent in this type of project require management to be fully aware of the factors that influence success. This study contributes to the literature on public-sector IS project management by providing a comprehensive set of Success Factors (SFs) for different levels of the administration. The research method comprised a literature review, six case studies of central government, local government, and other types of administration, and a questionnaire-based survey of public sector IS experts. Forty-four SFs were identified, described, and organized in nine categories: organization and environment; strategy; project; scope; project manager and project team; stakeholders; vendors; clients and users; and monitoring and control. Our results add a new perspective to the theoretical body of knowledge on the SFs for IS projects in the public sector.

2025

The AI Elephant in the Room: ChatGPT in Control Engineering Education

Authors
de Moura Oliveira, P; Vrancic, D;

Publication
IFAC-PapersOnLine

Abstract

2025

PID Control with TCLab: An Unified Experiment for Undergraduates

Authors
P.B. de Moura Oliveira; J. Boaventura Cunha;

Publication
IFAC-PapersOnLine

Abstract

2025

Transformer-Based Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Explanatory Variables

Authors
Caetano, R; Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;

Publication
MATHEMATICS

Abstract
Accurate demand forecasting is essential for retail operations as it directly impacts supply chain efficiency, inventory management, and financial performance. However, forecasting retail time series presents significant challenges due to their irregular patterns, hierarchical structures, and strong dependence on external factors such as promotions, pricing strategies, and socio-economic conditions. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Transformer-based architectures, specifically Vanilla Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, ETSformer, NSTransformer, and Reformer, for probabilistic time series forecasting in retail. A key focus is the integration of explanatory variables, such as calendar-related indicators, selling prices, and socio-economic factors, which play a crucial role in capturing demand fluctuations. This study assesses how incorporating these variables enhances forecast accuracy, addressing a research gap in the comprehensive evaluation of explanatory variables within multiple Transformer-based models. Empirical results, based on the M5 dataset, show that incorporating explanatory variables generally improves forecasting performance. Models leveraging these variables achieve up to 12.4% reduction in Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and 2.9% improvement in Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) compared to models that rely solely on past sales. Furthermore, probabilistic forecasting enhances decision making by quantifying uncertainty, providing more reliable demand predictions for risk management. These findings underscore the effectiveness of Transformer-based models in retail forecasting and emphasize the importance of integrating domain-specific explanatory variables to achieve more accurate, context-aware predictions in dynamic retail environments.

2025

Integrating Machine Learning and Digital Twins for Enhanced Smart Building Operation and Energy Management: A Systematic Review

Authors
Palley, B; Martins, JP; Bernardo, H; Rossetti, R;

Publication
URBAN SCIENCE

Abstract
Artificial Intelligence has recently expanded across various applications. Machine Learning, a subset of Artificial Intelligence, is a powerful technique for identifying patterns in data to support decision making and managing the increasing volume of information. Simultaneously, Digital Twins have been applied in several fields. In this context, combining Digital Twins, Machine Learning, and Smart Buildings offers significant potential to improve energy efficiency and operational effectiveness in building management. This review aims to identify and analyze studies that explore the application of Machine Learning and Digital Twins for operation and energy management in Smart Buildings, providing an updated perspective on these rapidly evolving topics. The methodology follows the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews, using Scopus and Web of Science databases. This review identifies the main concepts, objectives, and trends emerging from the literature. Furthermore, the findings confirm the recent growth in research combining Machine Learning and Digital Twins for building management, revealing diverse approaches, tools, methods, and challenges. Finally, this paper highlights existing research gaps and outlines opportunities for future investigation.

2025

The First Feedback Control Class: A Unique and Unrepeatable Event

Authors
P.B. de Moura Oliveira;

Publication
IFAC-PapersOnLine

Abstract

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