Filipe Tadeu Oliveira

Abstract
This paper presents a methodology for assessing the long-term economic feasibility of renewable energy-based systems for green hydrogen and ammonia production. A key innovation of this approach is the incorporation of a predictive algorithm that optimizes day-ahead system operation on an hourly basis, aiming to maximize profit. By integrating this feature, the methodology accounts for forecasting errors, leading to a more realistic economic evaluation. The selected case study integrates wind and PV as renewable energy sources, supplying an electrolyser and a Haber-Bosch ammonia production plant. Additionally, all supporting equipment, including an air separation unit for nitrogen production, compressors, and hydrogen / nitrogen / ammonia storage devices, is also considered. Furthermore, an electrochemical battery is included, allowing for an increased electrolyser load factor and smoother operating regimes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, providing valuable insights and performance indicators for this type of energy systems, enabling informed decision-making by investors and stakeholders.

Abstract
Reducing the gap between renewable energy needs and supply is crucial to achieve sustainable growth. Hydroelectric power production predictions in several Madeira Island catchment regions are shown in this article using Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, networks. In order to foresee hydro reservoirs inflows, our models take into account the island's dynamic precipitation and flow rates and simplify the process of water moving from the cloud to the turbine. The model developed for the Socorridos Faja Rodrigues system demonstrates the proficiency of LSTMs in capturing the unexpected flow behavior through its low RMSE. When it comes to energy planning, the model built for the CTIII Paul Velho system gives useful information despite its lower accuracy when it comes to anticipating problems.

Abstract
While the share of renewable energy in intercon-nected systems has been increasing steadily, in isolated systems it represents a bigger challenge. This paper presents a dispatch algorithm integrating thermal, wind, solar and hydro generation and storage for an isolated network, which allows maximizing renewable energy integration and reducing the share of thermal energy in the mix. The possibility of using the battery to provide 'spinning' reserve is also considered. The algorithm was tested and validated using real data from the island of Madeira, Portugal. Results prove the robustness and flexibility of the algorithm, showing that a significant decrease in the thermal fraction is achievable, and that it is possible to accommodate an increase in renewable generation with minimal or no curtailment at all.

Abstract
Nowadays, as more data is now available from an increasing number of installed sensors, load forecasting applied to buildings is being increasingly explored. The amount and quality of resulting information can provide inputs for smarter decisions when managing and operating office buildings. In this article, the authors use two data-driven methods (artificial neural networks and support vector machines) to predict the heating and cooling energy demand in an office building located in Lisbon, Portugal. In the present case-study, these methods prove to be an accurate and appealing alternative to the use of accurate but time-consuming multi-zone dynamic simulation tools, which strongly depend on several parameters to be inserted and user expertise to calibrate the model. Artificial neural networks and support vector machines were developed and parametrized using historical data and different sets of exogenous variables to encounter the best performance combinations for both the heating and cooling periods of a year. In the case of support vector regression, a variation introduced simulated annealing to guide the search for different combinations of hyperparameters. After a feature selection stage for each individual method, the results for the different methods were compared, based on error metrics and distributions. The outputs of the study include the most suitable methodology for each season, and also the features (historical load records, but also exogenous features such as outdoor temperature, relative humidity or occupancy profile) that led to the most accurate models. Results clearly show there is a potential for faster, yet accurate machine-learning based forecasting methods to replace well-established, very accurate but time-consuming multi-zone dynamic simulation tools to forecast building energy consumption.

Abstract
Forecasting heating and cooling energy demand in buildings plays a critical role in supporting building management and operation. Thus, analysing the energy consumption pattern of a building could help in the design of potential energy savings and also in operation fault detection, while contributing to provide proper indoor environmental conditions to the building's occupants.This paper aims at presenting the main results of a study consisting in forecasting the hourly heating and cooling demand of an office building located in Lisbon, Portugal, using machine learning models and analysing the influence of exogenous variables on those predictions. In order to forecast the heating and cooling demand of the considered building, some traditional models, such as linear and polynomial regression, were considered, as well as artificial neural networks and support vector regression, oriented to machine learning. The input parameters considered in the development of those models were the hourly heating and cooling energy historical records, the occupancy, solar gains through glazing and the outside dry-bulb temperature.The models developed were validated using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE), used to compare the values obtained from machine learning models with data obtained through a building energy simulation performed on an adequately calibrated model.The proposed exploratory analysis is integrated in a research project focused on applying machine learning methodologies to support energy forecasting in buildings. Hence, the research line proposed in this article corresponds to a preliminary project task associated with feature selection/extraction and evaluation of potential use of machine learning methods. © 2020 IEEE.