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Publications

Publications by CPES

2025

Forecasting Power Demand in Complex Buildings Using Machine Learning: A Shopping Center Case Study

Authors
Palley, B; Bernardo, H; Martins, JP; Rossetti, R;

Publication
Technological Innovation for AI-Powered Cyber-Physical Systems - 16th IFIP WG 5.5 / SOCOLNET Advanced Doctoral Conference on Computing, Electrical and Industrial Systems, DoCEIS 2025, Caparica, Portugal, July 2-4, 2025, Proceedings

Abstract
Recent studies have focused on forecasting power demand in buildings to enhance energy management. However, the literature still lacks comparative analyses of power demand forecasting algorithms. In addition, more case studies involving different building typologies are needed, as each building exhibits distinct behavior and load profiles. This paper aims to develop machine learning models to forecast the power demand of a large shopping center in the northern region of Portugal. The main objective is to compare the performance of several machine learning models. The results are promising, demonstrating adequate performance even during most holidays.

2025

A MILP Approach to Optimising Energy Storage in a Commercial Building

Authors
Tomás Barosa Santos; Filipe Tadeu Oliveira; Hermano Bernardo;

Publication
RE&PQJ

Abstract
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, commercial buildings have installed photovoltaic systems to reduce carbon emissions and operational costs. Nevertheless, PV generation does not always match the building’s energy demand profile, therefore storage systems are needed to store excess energy and supply it when necessary. This paper presents a Mixed Integer Linear Programming optimisation algorithm designed to schedule the operation of the electric storage system, aiming to minimise the building’s energy-related costs. An annual hourly simulation of the optimised system was performed to assess the cost reduction. To prevent excessive operation of the electric storage system, an approach to penalise low energy charging was studied, with results showing a significant increase in the system’s lifespan.

2025

Can People Flow Enhance the Shared Energy Facility Management?

Authors
Zhao A.P.; Li S.; Qian T.; Guan A.; Cheng X.; Kim J.; Alhazmi M.; Hernando-Gil I.;

Publication
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Abstract
The effective management of shared resources within energy communities poses a significant challenge, particularly when balancing renewable energy generation and fluctuating demand. This paper introduces a novel optimization framework that integrates people flow data, modeled using the Social Force Model (SFM), with energy management strategies to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of energy communities. By combining SFM with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA-III), the framework addresses multi-objective optimization problems, including minimizing energy costs, reducing user waiting times, and maximizing renewable energy utilization. The study employs synthesized data to simulate an energy community with shared facilities such as electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, communal kitchens, and laundry rooms. Results demonstrate the frameworks ability to align energy generation with resource demand, reducing peak loads and improving user satisfaction. The optimization model effectively incorporates real-time behavioral dynamics, showcasing significant improvements in renewable energy utilization-reaching up to 88% for EV charging stations-and cost reductions across various scenarios. This research pioneers the integration of people flow modeling into energy optimization, providing a robust tool for managing the complexities of energy communities.

2025

Smart Hygrothermal Ventilation, an Energy-Efficient Solution for Controlling Relative Humidity in Historical Constructions: A Case Study

Authors
Palley, B; de Freitas, VP; Abreu, P; Restivo, MT; Freitas, TS;

Publication
PROTECTION OF HISTORICAL CONSTRUCTIONS, PROHITECH 2025, VOL 1

Abstract
All over the world, there are several unoccupied spaces without adequate constant control mechanisms to reduce and prevent mold and provide good internal conditions and indoor air quality. A widespread way to reduce building humidity is through heating and dehumidification, which are costly to maintain and have high energy consumption. In addition, there are few studies on adjustable hygro ventilation systems, which do not consider the influence of temperature fluctuations. This work describes the operation of a prototype, which fills existing research gaps by considering not only the control of relative humidity (RH) but also the temperature peaks in indoor air conditions, allowing the maintenance of good air quality. The prototype Smart Hygrothermal Ventilation system uses two pairs of sensors related to RH and temperature, one pair placed inside an unoccupied compartment of the building and the other pair in the external environment, in order to activate a fan and the respective speed. The proposed prototype was applied in a compartment located on the ground floor in an unoccupied old rural building in a village near Porto during the winter period. The results show that the system performed adequately for different configurations of its functionalities. Therefore, the system offers an efficient alternative to minimize mold and the fluctuation of internal RH and temperature. Furthermore, it could be a vital mechanism for the conservation of historic buildings.

2025

Enhancing Reliability of Power Converters in Wind Farms: A Multi-Faceted Analysis of Wake Effects, Thermal Management, and Machine Learning Applications

Authors
Habib Ur Rahman Habib; Mahmoud Shahbazi;

Publication

Abstract
Abstract

This paper presents an integrated analytical approach to assess the reliability of power electronic converters in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG)-based wind farms under variable wind conditions. The study focuses on analyzing the impact of wake effect turbulences and thermal management on power converter reliability, driven by the thermal stress induced by fluctuating wind speeds on power converters. Through extensive simulations using FLORIS and MATLAB, the thermal behavior of converters in wind farms affected by wake interactions was examined to identify potential reliability issues. The methodology involved modeling an 80-turbine wind farm in FLORIS to simulate wake effects, processing high-resolution wind speed data in MATLAB to refine wind speed profiles, and using Simulink to simulate the thermal profiles of power electronics. The results of FLORIS simulations highlighted the variations in turbulence intensity (TI) and power output, while the MATLAB and Simulink models quantified critical thermal stresses in power converters, correlating the locations of the turbine rows with temperature fluctuations and potential failures. Machine learning models, including Gradient Boosting and Random Forest Regressor, were utilized to refine and predict the multi-objective reliability function. The findings underscore the importance of understanding and managing thermal dynamics to improve the reliability and operational resilience of the power converter, supporting sustainable wind farm operations in dynamically changing wind conditions.

2025

Model Predictive Control Based Unified Power Quality Conditioner for Textile Industry Integrated Distribution Grids

Authors
Habib Ur Rahman Habib; uhammad Kashif Shahzad; Asad Waqar; Saeed Mian Qaisar; rooj Mubashara Siddiqui;

Publication

Abstract
Abstract

Power quality (PQ) issues, including weak grids, voltage transients, harmonics, notches, current imbalance, and voltage sags, are critical challenges in the textile industry. Even a brief power interruption can halt industrial processes, leading to substantial financial losses. This paper proposes a Model Predictive Control (MPC)-based Unified Power Quality Conditioner (UPQC) as a robust solution to mitigate these PQ disturbances in textile industry-integrated distribution grids. The proposed UPQC is designed to enhance voltage stability, suppress harmonics, regulate reactive power, and correct current imbalance, ensuring uninterrupted industrial operation. A key contribution of this work is the realistic modeling of a textile industry’s electrical network, replicating actual industry ratings to evaluate system performance. The proposed MPC-based UPQC is assessed through five case studies, addressing weak vs. strong grids, voltage transients, current imbalance, and voltage sags—the most significant PQ challenges in textile applications. Simulation results demonstrate that the UPQC significantly improves voltage profiles, reduces harmonic distortion, and effectively compensates for current imbalance. Compared to conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controllers, the MPC-based UPQC exhibits superior performance in dynamic PQ disturbance mitigation and grid stabilization. These findings underscore the proposed system’s suitability for large-scale industrial deployment, offering a cost-effective and robust solution to enhance operational efficiency and grid reliability in the textile sector.

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