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Publications

Publications by Ricardo Jorge Bessa

2024

Improving Very Short-Term Wind Power Predictability by Strategically Placing Weather Stations

Authors
Klyagina O.; Camara D.P.; Bessa R.J.;

Publication
Proceedings - 24th EEEIC International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 8th I and CPS Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe, EEEIC/I and CPS Europe 2024

Abstract
This study aims to improve the accuracy of wind power generation forecasting by selecting the potential locations for weather stations, which serve as crucial data sources for wind predictions. The proposed method is based on using Shapley values. First, they are assigned to stations that are already available in the region based on their contribution to forecasting error. Second, the values are interpolated to cover the area of interest. We test the hypothesis that taking weather measurements in areas with negative Shapley values leads to a decrease in the error of forecasting the volume of wind power generation. We estimate the method's impact on forecasting error by using long short-term memory neural network and linear regression with quadratic penalization. The results of this proof-of-concept study indicate that it is possible to improve the short-term wind power forecasts using additional weather observations in the selected regions. The future research should be dedicated to the expansion of the case study area to other locations, including offshore power plants.

2024

Enhancing the European power system resilience with a recommendation system for voluntary demand response

Authors
Silva, CAM; Bessa, RJ; Andrade, JR; Coelho, FA; Costa, RB; Silva, CD; Vlachodimitropoulos, G; Stavropoulos, D; Chadoulos, S; Rua, DE;

Publication
ISCIENCE

Abstract
Climate change, geopolitical tensions, and decarbonization targets are bringing the resilience of the European electric power system to the forefront of discussion. Among various regulatory and technological solutions, voluntary demand response can help balance generation and demand during periods of energy scarcity or renewable energy generation surplus. This work presents an open data service called Interoperable Recommender that leverages publicly accessible data to calculate a country-specific operational balancing risk, providing actionable recommendations to empower citizens toward adaptive energy consumption, considering interconnections and local grid constraints. Using semantic interoperability, it enables third- party services to enhance energy management and customize applications to consumers. Real-world pilots in Portugal, Greece, and Croatia with over 300 consumers demonstrated the effectiveness of providing signals across diverse contexts. For instance, in Portugal, 7% of the hours included actionable recommendations, and metering data revealed a consumption decrease of 4% during periods when consumers were requested to lower consumption.

2024

Energy-efficient Manufacturing Scheduling of Footwear Industries with Onsite Photovoltaic Energy and Storage

Authors
Gomes, I; Paulos, J; Bessa, RJ; Sousa, M; Rebelo, R;

Publication
2024 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES, SEST 2024

Abstract
The footwear industry is energy-intensive and, consequently, a source of large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions every year. Issues related to climate change and growing conflicts on a global scale that impact the prices of raw materials and energy prices have led companies in the footwear industry to take actions to mitigate these impacts. Among these actions is the growing focus on producing its energy from energy systems based on renewable sources and battery energy storage units. This paper addresses the energy-efficient manufacturing scheduling in footwear industries with onsite energy production from a photovoltaic system with batteries. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem. Different objectives are presented, depending on the priorities of the entity that owns the footwear factory, namely, minimizing operation costs, minimizing CO2 emissions, or both. The case study is footwear factory located in Portugal that uses a manufacturing process based on injection molding. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, with active demand side management playing a fundamental role in shifting periods of higher energy consumption to periods of lower prices or lower CO2 emissions. Also, Pareto fronts are depicted to make the trade-off between CO2 emissions and operation costs. As expected, the reduction of CO2 emissions promotes an increase on operation costs. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the increase in photovoltaic capacity and battery capacity. The results show that increasing photovoltaic and battery capacity promotes reductions in costs up to 30% and in the emissions up to 37%.

2025

Budget-Constrained Collaborative Renewable Energy Forecasting Market

Authors
Goncalves, C; Bessa, J; Teixeira, T; Vinagre, J;

Publication
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

Abstract
Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized spatio-temporal data into forecasting models. However, decentralized data ownership presents a critical obstacle to the success of such spatio-temporal models, and incentive mechanisms to foster data-sharing need to be considered. The main contributions are a) a comparative analysis of the forecasting models, advocating for efficient and interpretable spline LASSO regression models, and b) a bidding mechanism within the data/analytics market to ensure fair compensation for data providers and enable both buyers and sellers to express their data price requirements. Furthermore, an incentive mechanism for time series forecasting is proposed, effectively incorporating price constraints and preventing redundant feature allocation. Results show significant accuracy improvements and potential monetary gains for data sellers. For wind power data, an average root mean squared error improvement of over 10% was achieved by comparing forecasts generated by the proposal with locally generated ones. © 2010-2012 IEEE.

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