Abstract
This text presents an overview of the basic concepts of a Neuro-Fuzzy inference system for spatial Offer-and-Demand forecasting of electric power on a geographical basis, over GIS (Geographical Information Systems).

Abstract
This paper presents a methodology developed within the SOLARGIS project - a Joule project - aiming at evaluating the potential of integrating renewable forms of energy for dispersed electricity production. With this project we also wanted to demonstrate the efficiency of GIS - Geographical Information Systems - as a tool to analyse the integration of renewable forms of energy. In this paper we present the methodologies developed to identify renewable resources in a given geographic region, to detect high potential areas for wind farm siting and to evaluate the efficiency and market of isolated systems to be used for dispersed rural electrification. In this last methodology we used fuzzy models to describe the uncertainties in demand and cost values.

Abstract
This paper presents the analysis of the importance of a set of explanatory (input) variables for the day-ahead price forecast in the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The available input variables include extensive hourly time series records of weather forecasts, previous prices, and regional aggregation of power generations and power demands. The paper presents the comparisons of the forecasting results achieved with a model which includes all these available input variables (EMPF model) with respect to those obtained by other forecasting models containing a reduced set of input variables. These comparisons identify the most important variables for forecasting purposes. In addition, a novel Reference Explanatory Model for Price Estimations (REMPE) that achieves hourly price estimations by using actual power generations and power demands of such day is described in the paper, which offers the lowest limit for the forecasting error of the EMPF model. All the models have been implemented using the same technique (artificial neural networks) and have been satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The relative importance of each explanatory variable is identified for the day-ahead price forecasts in the MIBEL. The comparisons also allow outlining guidelines of the value of the different types of input information.

Abstract
This article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models consists of data of hourly weather forecasts obtained from a Numerical Weather Prediction model and variables related to the sun position for future instants. The proposed models were satisfactorily applied to the case study of a real-life PV plant in Portugal. Probabilistic benchmark models were also applied to the same case study and their forecasting results compared with the ones of the proposed models. The computer results obtained with these proposed models achieve better point and probabilistic forecasting evaluation indexes values than the ones obtained with the benchmark models. (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under theCCBY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Abstract

Abstract
This article introduces BetaMemo models, a set of advanced probabilistic forecasting models aimed at predicting the hourly power output of photovoltaic plants. By employing a semiparametric approach based on beta distributions and deterministic models, BetaMemo offers detailed forecasts, including point forecasts, variance, quantiles, uncertainty measures, and probabilities of power generation falling within specific intervals or exceeding predefined thresholds. BetaMemo models rely on input data derived from weather forecasts generated by a Numerical Weather Prediction model coupled with variables pertaining to solar positioning in the forthcoming hours. Eleven BetaMemo models were created, each using a unique combination of explanatory variables. These variables include data related to the location of the plant and spatiotemporal variables from weather forecasts across a broad area surrounding the plant. The models were validated using a real-life case study of a photovoltaic plant in Portugal, including comparisons of their performance with benchmark forecasting models. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the BetaMemo models, surpassing those of benchmark models in terms of forecasting accuracy. The BetaMemo model that integrates the most extensive set of spatiotemporal explanatory variables provides notably better forecasting results than simpler versions of the model that rely exclusively on the local plant information. This model improves the continuous ranked probability score by 13.89% and the reliability index by 45.66% compared to those obtained from a quantile random forest model using the same explanatory variables. The findings highlight the potential of BetaMemo models to enhance decision-making processes related to photovoltaic power bidding in electricity markets.