2024
Autores
Oliveira, JM; Ramos, P;
Publicação
MATHEMATICS
Abstract
This study investigates the effectiveness of Transformer-based models for retail demand forecasting. We evaluated vanilla Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, PatchTST, and temporal fusion Transformer (TFT) against traditional baselines like AutoARIMA and AutoETS. Model performance was assessed using mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and weighted quantile loss (WQL). The M5 competition dataset, comprising 30,490 time series from 10 stores, served as the evaluation benchmark. The results demonstrate that Transformer-based models significantly outperform traditional baselines, with Transformer, Informer, and TFT leading the performance metrics. These models achieved MASE improvements of 26% to 29% and WQL reductions of up to 34% compared to the seasonal Na & iuml;ve method, particularly excelling in short-term forecasts. While Autoformer and PatchTST also surpassed traditional methods, their performance was slightly lower, indicating the potential for further tuning. Additionally, this study highlights a trade-off between model complexity and computational efficiency, with Transformer models, though computationally intensive, offering superior forecasting accuracy compared to the significantly slower traditional models like AutoARIMA. These findings underscore the potential of Transformer-based approaches for enhancing retail demand forecasting, provided the computational demands are managed effectively.
2024
Autores
Martins, J; Pereira, P; Campilho, R; Pinto, A;
Publicação
MESA 2024 - 20th International Conference on Mechatronic, Embedded Systems and Applications, Proceedings
Abstract
Due to the difficult access to the maritime environment, cooperation between different robotic platforms operating in different domains provides numerous advantages when considering Operations and Maintenance (O&M) missions. The nest Uncrewed Surface Vehicle (USV) is equipped with a parallel platform, serving as a landing pad for Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) landings in dynamic sea states. This work proposes a methodology for short term forecasting of wave-behaviour using Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) and a low-pass Butterworth filter to filter out noise readings from the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and applying an Auto-Regressive (AR) model for the forecast, showing good results within an almost 10-second window. These predictions are then used in a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach to optimize trajectory planning of the landing pad roll and pitch, in order to increase horizontality, consistently mitigating around 80% of the wave induced motion. ©2024 IEEE.
2024
Autores
Cristino, C; Nicola, S; Costa, J; Bettencourt, N; Madureira, A; Pereira, I; Costa, A;
Publicação
2024 IEEE 22ND MEDITERRANEAN ELECTROTECHNICAL CONFERENCE, MELECON 2024
Abstract
This paper focuses on the importance of Business Intelligence (BI) tools in the business context and the urgent need for more effective implementation of time series forecasting models in these resources. It shows the utility and applicability of Sage Enterprise Intelligence (SEI), an integrated BI tool in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Sage, by illustrating how it enhances data analysis and decision-making processes. Additionally, a study will show the application of time series forecasting models: Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and additive Holt-Winters to the sales value of a fuel sector company. The research was conducted through a case study in which sales data were collected from 2016 to 2023. The results indicate that neither of the two models exceeded the sales figures reflecting the company's market position. In this case study, both models performed well, with the residuals verifying the assumptions. However, the additive Holt-Winters model had lower errors, which is why it was selected for the final step: forecasting 12 months.
2024
Autores
Barroso, TG; Costa, JM; Gregório, AH; Martins, RC;
Publicação
Abstract
2024
Autores
Accinelli, E; Afsar, A; Martins, F; Martins, J; Oliveira, BMPM; Oviedo, J; Pinto, AA; Quintas, L;
Publicação
MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES
Abstract
This paper fits in the theory of international agreements by studying the success of stable coalitions of agents seeking the preservation of a public good. Extending Baliga and Maskin, we consider a model of N homogeneous agents with quasi-linear utilities of the form u(j) (r(j); r) = r(alpha) - r(j), where r is the aggregate contribution and the exponent alpha is the elasticity of the gross utility. When the value of the elasticity alpha increases in its natural range (0, 1), we prove the following five main results in the formation of stable coalitions: (i) the gap of cooperation, characterized as the ratio of the welfare of the grand coalition to the welfare of the competitive singleton coalition grows to infinity, which we interpret as a measure of the urge or need to save the public good; (ii) the size of stable coalitions increases from 1 up to N; (iii) the ratio of the welfare of stable coalitions to the welfare of the competitive singleton coalition grows to infinity; (iv) the ratio of the welfare of stable coalitions to the welfare of the grand coalition decreases (a lot), up to when the number of members of the stable coalition is approximately N/e and after that it increases (a lot); and (v) the growth of stable coalitions occurs with a much greater loss of the coalition members when compared with free-riders. Result (v) has two major drawbacks: (a) A priori, it is difficult to convince agents to be members of the stable coalition and (b) together with results (i) and (iv), it explains and leads to the pessimistic Barrett's paradox of cooperation, even in a case not much considered in the literature: The ratio of the welfare of the stable coalitions against the welfare of the grand coalition is small, even in the extreme case where there are few (or a single) free-riders and the gap of cooperation is large. Optimistically, result (iii) shows that stable coalitions do much better than the competitive singleton coalition. Furthermore, result (ii) proves that the paradox of cooperation is resolved for larger values of.. so that the grand coalition is stabilized.
2024
Autores
Neves, S; Branco, M; Pereira, I; Claro, M; Pinto, M;
Publicação
MESA 2024 - 20th International Conference on Mechatronic, Embedded Systems and Applications, Proceedings
Abstract
In the field of autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) landing, conventional approaches fall short in delivering not only the required precision but also the resilience against environmental disturbances. Yet, learning-based algorithms can offer promising solutions by leveraging their ability to learn the intelligent behaviour from data. On one hand, this paper introduces a novel multimodal transformer-based Deep Learning detector, that can provide reliable positioning for precise autonomous landing. It surpasses standard approaches by addressing individual sensor limitations, achieving high reliability even in diverse weather and sensor failure conditions. It was rigorously validated across varying environments, achieving optimal true positive rates and average precisions of up to 90%. On the other hand, it is proposed a Reinforcement Learning (RL) decision-making model, based on a Deep Q-Network (DQN) rationale. Initially trained in simulation, its adaptive behaviour is successfully transferred and validated in a real outdoor scenario. Furthermore, this approach demonstrates rapid inference times of approximately 5ms, validating its applicability on edge devices. ©2024 IEEE.
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