Bruno Miguel Veloso

Abstract
Early fault detection remains a critical challenge in predictive maintenance (PdM), particularly within critical infrastructure, where undetected failures or delayed interventions can compromise safety and disrupt operations. Traditional anomaly detection methods are typically reactive, relying on real-time sensor data to identify deviations as they occur. This reactive nature often provides insufficient lead time for effective maintenance planning. To address this limitation, we propose a novel two-stage early detection framework that integrates time series forecasting with anomaly detection to anticipate equipment failures several hours in advance. In the first stage, future sensor signal values are predicted using forecasting models; in the second, conventional anomaly detection algorithms are applied directly to the forecasted data. By shifting from real-time to anticipatory detection, the framework aims to deliver actionable early warnings, enabling timely and preventive maintenance. We validate this approach through a case study focused on metro train systems, an environment where early fault detection is crucial for minimizing service disruptions, optimizing maintenance schedules, and ensuring passenger safety. The framework is evaluated across three forecast horizons (1, 3, and 6 hours ahead) using twelve state-of-the-art anomaly detection algorithms from diverse methodological families. Detection performance is assessed using five performance metrics. Results show that anomaly detection remains highly effective at short to medium horizons, with performance at 1-hour and 3-hour forecasts comparable to that of real-time data. Ensemble and deep learning models exhibit strong robustness to forecast uncertainty, maintaining consistent results with real-time data even at 6-hour forecasts. In contrast, distance- and density-based models suffer substantial degradation at longer horizons (6-hours), reflecting their sensitivity to distributional shifts in predicted signals. Overall, the proposed framework offers a practical and extensible solution for enhancing traditional PdM systems with proactive capabilities. By enabling early anomaly detection on forecasted data, it supports improved decision-making, operational resilience, and maintenance planning in industrial environments.

Abstract
One of the key aspects of Industry 4.0 is using intelligent systems to optimize manufacturing processes by improving productivity and reducing costs. These systems have greatly impacted in different areas, such as demand prediction and quality assessment. However, the prognostics and health management of industrial equipment is one of the areas with greater potential. This paper presents a comparative analysis of deep learning architectures applied to the prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) on public real industrial datasets. The analysis includes some of the most commonly employed recurrent neural network variations and a novel approach based on a hybrid architecture using transformers. Moreover, we apply explainability techniques to provide comprehensive insights into the model's decision-making process. The contributions of the work are: (1) a novel transformer-based architecture for RUL prediction that outperforms traditional recurrent neural networks; (2) a detailed description of the design strategies used to construct the models on two under-explored datasets; (3) the use of explainability techniques to understand the feature importance and to explain the model's prediction and (4) making models built for reproducibility available to other researchers.

Abstract
Predictive Maintenance (PdM) aims to prevent failures through early detection, yet lacks explainability to support decision-making. Current PdM models often identify failures, but fail to explain their root causes, especially in real-world scenarios, with complex and limited labeled data. This study proposes an interpretable framework that combines LSTM-based Anomaly Detection with a dual-layered Root Cause Analysis (RCA) based on SHAP attributions. Applied to a real-world dataset, the method detects degradation transitions, tracks failure patterns over time, and provides interpretable information without explicit root cause labels.

Abstract
Predictive maintenance applications have increasingly been approached with deep learning techniques in recent years due to their high predictive performance. However, as in other real-world application scenarios, the need for explainability is often stated but not sufficiently addressed, which can limit adoption in practice. In this study, we will focus on predicting failures of trains operating in Porto, Portugal. While recent works have found high-performing deep neural network architectures that feature a parallel explainability pipeline, we find that the generated explanations can be hard to comprehend in practice due to their low support over the failure range. In this work, we propose a novel online rule-learning approach that is able to generate simple rules that cover the entirety of the detected failures. We evaluate our method against AMRules, a state-of-the-art online rule-learning approach, on two datasets gathered from trains operated by Metro do Porto. Our experiments show that our approach consistently generates rules with very high support that are simultaneously short and interpretable.

Abstract
The growing availability of online data creates new opportunities to improve the timeliness and detail of official statistics, particularly in domains such as price monitoring and inflation measurement. However, leveraging web-scraped data for official use requires alignment with standardized classification frameworks such as the European Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (ECOICOP). We train two natural-language models, a lightweight convolutional neural network (CNN) and a fine-tuned BERTimbau transformer, to classify Portuguese food and beverage items into ECOICOP categories. Using 100,000 product titles scraped from six national supermarket sites and labeled via a human-in-the-loop workflow, the CNN reaches a macro-F1 of 92.19 % with minimal computing cost, while the transformer attains 94.00 %, the first such result for Portuguese. Both models are published on Hugging Face, enabling reproducible inference at scale while the source data remain confidential. The study delivers the first open-source Portuguese ECOICOP classifiers for food and beverage products, a replicable low-resource labeling workflow, and a benchmark of accuracy-speed trade-offs to guide researchers in similar tasks.