Abstract

Abstract
In time series analysis, Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models play a central role. Because of the importance of parameter estimation in ARMA modeling and since it is based on aggregate time series so often, we analyze the effect of temporal aggregation on estimation accuracy. We derive the relationships between the aggregate and the basic parameters and compute the actual values of the former from those of the latter in order to measure and compare their estimation accuracy. We run a simulation experiment that shows that aggregation seriously worsens estimation accuracy and that the impact increases with the order of aggregation.

Abstract
Purpose: The aim of this study is to validate the current applicability of arteriovenous access banding in high flow access (HFA) and/or haemodialysis access-induced distal ischaemia (HAIDI). Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at the GEV (Grupo de Estudos Vasculares) vascular access centre. The clinical records of consecutive patients undergoing banding for HAIDI and HFA symptoms, between June 2011 and January 2015, were reviewed until April 2015. All vascular access patients' consultation records and surgical notes were reviewed. We analysed and compared patients' age, gender, comorbidities, symptoms and intraoperative ultrasound control. We defined technical failure as recurrence of symptoms, requiring new banding. Excessive banding, access thrombosis, rupture and false aneurysm development were registered as complications. Primary clinical success was defined as improvement of symptoms or effective flow reduction after banding, with no need for reintervention. If one reintervention was necessary, we have defined it as secondary clinical success. Results: Overall, 119 patients underwent banding: 64 (54%) with HAIDI and 55 (46%) with HFA. The HAIDI group was significantly older (65 +/- 13 years compared with 56 +/- 22 years, p = 0.001) and had significantly greater number of patients with diabetes (56% vs 24%, p = 0.004). Primary success was achieved in 85 patients (71.4%) and the secondary success rate was 84.9%. Older age (p = 0.016) and intraoperative ultrasound control (p = 0.012) were significantly associated with primary success. Conclusions: Our results do not corroborate the high incidence of thrombosis previously reported as associated with AV access banding and suggest that ultrasound control is crucial for preventing technical failure. The procedure was effective on both compared groups.

Abstract
Dysfunction problems with vascular access are a concern to patients and dialysis units. The vascular surgeon should analyse such dysfunction and perform a careful assessment of the vascular network in order to find new fistula layouts. We introduce and discuss the case of creation of a radiocephalic fistula with outflow into the forearm basilic vein through rotation of the forearm basilic vein toward the cephalic vein in the forearm of an 88-year-old hemodialysis male patient. This technique enables extending fistula patency and improves cost efficiency.

Abstract
End stage renal disease (ESRD) patients should be educated to maintain and preserve the arteriovenous fistula (AVF) in the best condition. The purpose of this work was to evaluate self-care frequency and factors that influenced such frequency. A prospective study was performed in 101 hemodialysis patients. Self-care behaviors were measured with the Scale of Assessment of Self-Care Behaviours with Arteriovenous Fistula in Hemodialysis. A regression model was used to determine the relevant predictors of self-care frequency and their influence. The incidence of self-care behaviors was 71.0%. The regression model showed that self-care behaviors were positively influenced by gender (female), ESRD etiology (hypertension, polycystic kidneys and other kidney diseases), duration of AVF and negatively by the existence of previous AVF and health professional (doctor). The frequency of self-care behaviors was lower than expected and below an appropriate standard. Education programs designed to improve self-care behaviors with AVF should be further explored in a prospective randomized trial.

Abstract
Aim of study: The study aims to evaluate the maximum potential stocking level in cork oak (Quercus suber L.) woodlands, using the ecologically-based size-density relationship of the self-thinning law. Area of study: The study area refers to cork oak forests in mainland Portugal, distributed along its 18 districts from north to south. Material and Methods: A dataset with a total of 2181 observations regarding pure cork oak stands was collected from the Portuguese Forest Inventory (NFI) databases and from research plots. The dataset was subjected to two filtering procedures, one more restrictive than the other, to select the stands presenting the higher stocking values. The two resulting subsets, with 116 and 36 observations, from 16 and 10 districts of mainland Portugal, respectively, were then used to assess and describe the allometric relationship between tree number and their mean diameter. Main results: The allometric relationship was analysed and modelled using the log transformed variables. A slightly curvilinear trend was identified. Thus, a straight line and a curve were both fitted for comparison purposes. Goodness-of-fit statistics point out for a good performance when the data is set to the uppermost observed stocking values. A self-thinning line for cork oak was projected from the estimated relationship. Research highlights: The self-thinning model can be used as an ecological approach to develop density guidelines for oak woodlands in a scenario of increasing cork demands. The results indicate that the recommendations being applied in Portugal are far below the maximal potential stocking values for the species. It is therefore of the utmost importance to review the traditional silvicultural guidelines and endorse new ones.