Abstract
Probabilistic forecasting of distribution tails (i.e., quantiles below 0.05 and above 0.95) is challenging for non parametric approaches since data for extreme events are scarce. A poor forecast of extreme quantiles can have a high impact in various power system decision-aid problems. An alternative approach more robust to data sparsity is extreme value theory (EVT), which uses parametric functions for modelling distribution's tails. In this work, we apply conditional EVT estimators to historical data by directly combining gradient boosting trees with a truncated generalized Pareto distribution. The parametric function parameters are conditioned by covariates such as wind speed or direction from a numerical weather predictions grid. The results for a wind power plant located in Galicia, Spain, show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of quantile score.

Abstract
Determining the cause of a particular event has been a case of study for several researchers over the years. Finding out why an event happens (its cause) means that, for example, if we remove the cause from the equation, we can stop the effect from happening or if we replicate it, we can create the subsequent effect. Causality can be seen as a mean of predicting the future, based on information about past events, and with that, prevent or alter future outcomes. This temporal notion of past and future is often one of the critical points in discovering the causes of a given event. The purpose of this survey is to present a cross-sectional view of causal discovery domain, with an emphasis in the machine learning/data mining area.

Abstract
The number of Internet of Things devices generating data streams is expected to grow exponentially with the support of emergent technologies such as 5G networks. Therefore, the online processing of these data streams requires the design and development of suitable machine learning algorithms, able to learn online, as data is generated. Like their batch-learning counterparts, stream-based learning algorithms require careful hyperparameter settings. However, this problem is exacerbated in online learning settings, especially with the occurrence of concept drifts, which frequently require the reconfiguration of hyperparameters. In this article, we present SSPT, an extension of the Self Parameter Tuning (SPT) optimisation algorithm for data streams. We apply the Nelder-Mead algorithm to dynamically-sized samples, converging to optimal settings in a single pass over data while using a relatively small number of hyperparameter configurations. In addition, our proposal automatically readjusts hyperparameters when concept drift occurs. To assess the effectiveness of SSPT, the algorithm is evaluated with three different machine learning problems: recommendation, regression, and classification. Experiments with well-known data sets show that the proposed algorithm can outperform previous hyperparameter tuning efforts by human experts. Results also show that SSPT converges significantly faster and presents at least similar accuracy when compared with the previous double-pass version of the SPT algorithm.

Abstract

Abstract
The present work aims to compare several load disaggregation methods. While the supervised alternative was found to be the most competent, the semi-supervised is proved to be close in terms of potential, while the unsupervised alternative seems insufficient. By the same token, the tests with long-lasting data prove beneficial to confirm the long-term performance since no significant loss of performance is noticed with the scalar of the time-horizon. Finally, the patchwork of new parametrization and methodology fine-tuning also proves interesting for improving global performance in several methods.

Abstract
One of the most significant challenges for machine learning nowadays is the discovery of causal relationships from data. This causal discovery is commonly performed using Bayesian like algorithms. However, more recently, more and more causal discovery algorithms have appeared that do not fall into this category. In this paper, we present a new algorithm that explores global causal association rules with Uncertainty Coefficient. Our algorithm, CRPA-UC, is a global structure discovery approach that combines the advantages of association mining with causal discovery and can be applied to binary and non-binary discrete data. This approach was compared to the PC algorithm using several well-known data sets, using several metrics.