2012
Autores
Azevedo, F; Machado, JT;
Publicação
2012 9TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM)
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). MDS is a computational and statistical technique that produces a spatial representation of similarity between objects through factors of relatedness. MDS represents in a low dimensional map data points whose similarities are defined in a higher dimensional space. Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.
2003
Autores
Azevedo, F; Vale, ZA; Do Vale, AA;
Publicação
2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech - Conference Proceedings
Abstract
The Pool, in many countries, was adopted for the participants of the electricity market to trade the electrical energy in a basis of each half-hour or one hour of the next day. However, like the traditional markets, the agents of electrical market are now exposed to the volatility of market price. In some countries, to face that problem and to turn the market more liquid, the derivatives markets - futures and options - were introduced to negotiate products with electrical energy as underlying active. In this context, there is a need of decision-support tools to assist those agents for the use of derivatives markets with the objective of practicing the hedge. In this paper, we present a decision model that supports producers to establish contracts with the objective to maximize the profit expected utility. © 2003 IEEE.
2006
Autores
Azevedo, F; Vale, ZA;
Publicação
2006 IEEE/PES POWER SYSTEMS CONFERENCE AND EXPOSITION. VOLS 1-5
Abstract
Factors such as uncertainty associated to fuel prices, energy demand and generation availability, are on the basis of the agents major concerns in electricity markets. Facing that reality, price forecasting has an increasing impact in agents' activity. The success on bidding strategies or on price negotiation for bilateral contracts is directly dependent on the accuracy of the price forecast. However, taking decisions based only on a single forecasted value is not a good practice in risk management. The work presented in this paper makes use of artificial neural networks to find the market price for a given period, with a certain confidence level. Historical information was used to train the neural networks and the number of neural networks used is dependent of the number of clusters found on that data. K-Means clustering method is used to find clusters. A study case with real data is presented and discussed in detail.
2009
Autores
Azevedo, F; Khodr, HM; Vale, ZA;
Publicação
2009 6TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET
Abstract
In this paper is presented a Game Theory based methodology to allocate transmission costs, considering cooperation and competition between producers. As original contribution, it finds the degree of participation on the additional costs according to the demand behavior. A comparative study was carried out between the obtained results using Nucleolus balance and Shapley Value, with other techniques such as Averages Allocation method and the Generalized Generation Distribution Factors method (GGDF). As example, a six nodes network was used for the simulations. The results demonstrate the ability to find adequate solutions on open access environment to the networks.
2008
Autores
Azevedo, F; Vale, ZA;
Publicação
2008 5TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET, VOLS 1 AND 2
Abstract
Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.
2007
Autores
Azevedo, F; Vale, ZA; Oliveira, PBM;
Publicação
2007 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS TO POWER SYSTEMS, VOLS 1 AND 2
Abstract
Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level a. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.
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