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Publicações

Publicações por Cláudio Monteiro

2001

Spatial offer and demand forecasting with neuro fuzzy inference systems in GIS

Autores
Miranda, V; Monteiro, C; Konjic, T;

Publicação
2001 IEEE POWER ENGINEERING SOCIETY WINTER MEETING, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, VOLS 1-3

Abstract
This text presents an overview of the basic concepts of a Neuro-Fuzzy inference system for spatial Offer-and-Demand forecasting of electric power on a geographical basis, over GIS (Geographical Information Systems).

1998

Evacuation of electrification alternatives in developing countries - The SOLARGIS tool

Autores
Monteiro, C; Saraiva, JT; Miranda, V;

Publicação
MELECON '98 - 9TH MEDITERRANEAN ELECTROTECHNICAL CONFERENCE, VOLS 1 AND 2

Abstract
This paper presents a methodology developed within the SOLARGIS project - a Joule project - aiming at evaluating the potential of integrating renewable forms of energy for dispersed electricity production. With this project we also wanted to demonstrate the efficiency of GIS - Geographical Information Systems - as a tool to analyse the integration of renewable forms of energy. In this paper we present the methodologies developed to identify renewable resources in a given geographic region, to detect high potential areas for wind farm siting and to evaluate the efficiency and market of isolated systems to be used for dispersed rural electrification. In this last methodology we used fuzzy models to describe the uncertainties in demand and cost values.

2015

Explanatory Information Analysis for Day-Ahead Price Forecasting in the Iberian Electricity Market

Autores
Monteiro, C; Fernandez Jimenez, LA; Ramirez Rosado, IJ;

Publicação
ENERGIES

Abstract
This paper presents the analysis of the importance of a set of explanatory (input) variables for the day-ahead price forecast in the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The available input variables include extensive hourly time series records of weather forecasts, previous prices, and regional aggregation of power generations and power demands. The paper presents the comparisons of the forecasting results achieved with a model which includes all these available input variables (EMPF model) with respect to those obtained by other forecasting models containing a reduced set of input variables. These comparisons identify the most important variables for forecasting purposes. In addition, a novel Reference Explanatory Model for Price Estimations (REMPE) that achieves hourly price estimations by using actual power generations and power demands of such day is described in the paper, which offers the lowest limit for the forecasting error of the EMPF model. All the models have been implemented using the same technique (artificial neural networks) and have been satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The relative importance of each explanatory variable is identified for the day-ahead price forecasts in the MIBEL. The comparisons also allow outlining guidelines of the value of the different types of input information.

2023

Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants

Autores
Fernandez-Jimenez, LA; Monteiro, C; Ramirez-Rosado, IJ;

Publicação
ENERGY REPORTS

Abstract
This article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models consists of data of hourly weather forecasts obtained from a Numerical Weather Prediction model and variables related to the sun position for future instants. The proposed models were satisfactorily applied to the case study of a real-life PV plant in Portugal. Probabilistic benchmark models were also applied to the same case study and their forecasting results compared with the ones of the proposed models. The computer results obtained with these proposed models achieve better point and probabilistic forecasting evaluation indexes values than the ones obtained with the benchmark models. (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under theCCBY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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