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Publicações

Publicações por João Falcão Cunha

2012

Modeling partial customer churn: On the value of first product-category purchase sequences

Autores
Migueis, VL; Van den Poel, D; Camanho, AS; Falcao e Cunha, JFE;

Publicação
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
Retaining customers has been considered one of the most critical challenges among those included in Customer Relationship Management (CRM), particularly in the grocery retail sector. In this context, an accurate prediction whether or not a customer will leave the company, i.e. churn prediction, is crucial for companies to conduct effective retention campaigns. This paper proposes to include in partial churn detection models the succession of first products' categories purchased as a proxy of the state of trust and demand maturity of a customer towards a company in grocery retailing. Motivated by the importance of the first impressions and risks experienced recently on the current state of the relationship, we model the first purchase succession in chronological order as well as in reverse order, respectively. Due to the variable relevance of the first customer-company interactions and of the most recent interactions, these two variables are modeled by considering a variable length of the sequence. In this study we use logistic regression as the classification technique. A real sample of approximately 75,000 new customers taken from the data warehouse of a European retail company is used to test the proposed models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and 1%, 5% and 10% percentiles lift are used to assess the performance of the partial-churn prediction models. The empirical results reveal that both proposed models outperform the standard RFM model.

2012

Predicting partial customer churn using Markov for discrimination for modeling first purchase sequences

Autores
Migueis, VL; Van den Poel, D; Camanho, AS; Falcao e Cunha, JFE;

Publicação
ADVANCES IN DATA ANALYSIS AND CLASSIFICATION

Abstract
Currently, in order to remain competitive companies are adopting customer centered strategies and consequently customer relationship management is gaining increasing importance. In this context, customer retention deserves particular attention. This paper proposes a model for partial churn detection in the retail grocery sector that includes as a predictor the similarity of the products' first purchase sequence with churner and non-churner sequences. The sequence of first purchase events is modeled using Markov for discrimination. Two classification techniques are used in the empirical study: logistic regression and random forests. A real sample of approximately 95,000 new customers is analyzed taken from the data warehouse of a European retailing company. The empirical results reveal the relevance of the inclusion of a products' sequence likelihood in partial churn prediction models, as well as the supremacy of logistic regression when compared with random forests.

2012

Customer data mining for lifestyle segmentation

Autores
Migueis, VL; Camanho, AS; Falcao e Cunha, JFE;

Publicação
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Abstract
A good relationship between companies and customers is a crucial factor of competitiveness. Market segmentation is a key issue for companies to develop and maintain loyal relationships with customers as well as to promote the increase of company sales. This paper proposes a method for market segmentation in retailing based on customers' lifestyle, supported by information extracted from a large transactional database. A set of typical shopping baskets are mined from the database, using a variable clustering algorithm, and these are used to infer customers lifestyle. Customers are assigned to a lifestyle segment based on their purchases history. This study is done in collaboration with an European retailing company.

2008

A Master Program in Services Engineering and Management at the University of Porto

Autores
Falcao e Cunha, JFE; Patricio, L; Camanho, A; Fisk, R;

Publicação
SERVICE SCIENCE, MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

Abstract
The education of professional engineers has been mainly oriented towards the requirements of industry, although many graduates will start and end up working in service organizations. Services always involve interaction, either directly between people or using machines. Most services now require the use of technology, including self service machines, Internet and mobile equipments and may involve complex social and organizational issues. Although engineering programs have evolved in order to accommodate changes in the economy, new proposals must be taken into new graduate and postgraduate education. This paper proposes MESG1, a Master program in Services Engineering and Management compatible with the Bologna European framework. It is still a program to educate professional engineers, in the sense that graduates will be prepared to Conceive, Design, Implement and Operate (CDIO) complex value-added engineering systems. But MESG has a strong emphasis on: (i) understanding the innovative technologies now required for service provision, (ii) understanding the functional and the experience requirements of people using services, and (iii) management of the service CDIO process and understanding its value. Knowledge and experience about people and about business, in social-organizational environments, are important components in the advanced education of service engineers and managers.

2009

Requirements engineering for multi-channel services: the SEB method and its application to a multi-channel bank

Autores
Patricio, L; Falcao e Cunha, JFE; Fisk, RP;

Publicação
REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING

Abstract
The widespread usage of technology for service provision to customers has created a new and challenging environment for the design of interactive systems, with the emergence of technology enabled multi-channel services. Requirements engineers involved in the design of such service systems must actively work together with interaction designers and service managers to better integrate customer service experience and technology components, requiring unifying methods and tools within the emerging field of service science management and engineering. This paper proposes the service experience blueprint (SEB), a multidisciplinary method for the design of technology enabled multi-channel service systems and illustrates its application in two examples of redesign of banking services that involved an extensive study with more than 4,000 bank customers. The SEB method is based on concepts and tools from RE and interaction design, such as goal-oriented analysis and conceptual modeling, but also uses methods developed in the service and marketing fields, such as service blueprinting. SEB brings marketing research methods to the requirements process, as they can provide a useful contribution for the elicitation of customer experience requirements in service environments. By bringing together goal-oriented modeling and use case modeling from requirements engineering, with service blueprinting from service design, the SEB method contributes to creating a shared understanding and a unifying language to better support the design of new technology enabled multi-channel service systems, where technology and service issues are deeply intertwined.

2011

Multilevel Service Design: From Customer Value Constellation to Service Experience Blueprinting

Autores
Patricio, L; Fisk, RP; Falcao e Cunha, JFE; Constantine, L;

Publicação
JOURNAL OF SERVICE RESEARCH

Abstract
The proliferation of complex service systems raises new challenges for service design and requires new methods. Multilevel Service Design (MSD) is presented as a new interdisciplinary method for designing complex service systems. MSD synthesizes contributions from new service development, interaction design, and the emerging field of service design. MSD enables integrated development of service offerings at three hierarchical levels: (a) Designing the firm's service concept with the customer value constellation of service offerings for the value constellation experience; (b) Designing the firm's service system, comprising its architecture and navigation, for the service experience; and (c) Designing each service encounter with the Service Experience Blueprint for the service encounter experience. Applications of the MSD method are described for designing a new retail grocery service and for redesigning a bank service. MSD contributes an interdisciplinary service design method that accommodates the cocreative nature of customer experiences and enables experience integration from the design of the service concept through the design of the service system and service encounter.

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