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Publicações

Publicações por CESE

2022

Forecasting: theory and practice

Autores
Petropoulos, F; Apiletti, D; Assimakopoulos, V; Babai, MZ; Barrow, DK; Ben Taieb, S; Bergmeir, C; Bessa, RJ; Bijak, J; Boylan, JE; Browell, J; Carnevale, C; Castle, JL; Cirillo, P; Clements, MP; Cordeiro, C; Oliveira, FLC; De Baets, S; Dokumentov, A; Ellison, J; Fiszeder, P; Franses, PH; Frazier, DT; Gilliland, M; Gonul, MS; Goodwin, P; Grossi, L; Grushka Cockayne, Y; Guidolin, M; Guidolin, M; Gunter, U; Guo, XJ; Guseo, R; Harvey, N; Hendry, DF; Hollyman, R; Januschowski, T; Jeon, J; Jose, VRR; Kang, YF; Koehler, AB; Kolassa, S; Kourentzes, N; Leva, S; Li, F; Litsiou, K; Makridakis, S; Martin, GM; Martinez, AB; Meeran, S; Modis, T; Nikolopoulos, K; Onkal, D; Paccagnini, A; Panagiotelis, A; Panapakidis, I; Pavia, JM; Pedio, M; Pedregal, DJ; Pinson, P; Ramos, P; Rapach, DE; Reade, JJ; Rostami Tabar, B; Rubaszek, M; Sermpinis, G; Shang, HL; Spiliotis, E; Syntetos, AA; Talagala, PD; Talagala, TS; Tashman, L; Thomakos, D; Thorarinsdottir, T; Todini, E; Arenas, JRT; Wang, XQ; Winkler, RL; Yusupova, A; Ziel, F;

Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. (C) 2021 The Author( s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.

2022

Financial Contagion from the Subprime Crisis: A Copula Approach

Autores
Mendes, RIL; Gomes, LMP; Ramos, PAG;

Publicação
SCIENTIFIC ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS

Abstract
The magnitude of the subprime crisis effects caused recessions in several economies, giving rise to the global financial crisis. The scale of this major shock and the different recovery profiles of European economies motivated this paper. The main objective is to look for evidence of contagion between the North American financial market (S&P500) and the financial markets of Portugal (PSI20), Spain (IBEX35), Greece (ATHEX) and Italy (FTSEMIB), in the South of Europe, and the financial markets of Sweden (OMXS30), Denmark (OMX2C0), Finland (OMXH25) and Norway (OsloOBX), in the North of Europe. Considering the period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2013, the ARMA-GARCH models were estimated to remove the autoregressive and conditional heteroscedastic effects from the time series of the daily returns. Then, the copula models were used to estimate the dependence relationships between the European stock indexes and the North American stock index, from the pre -crisis subperiod to the crisis subperiod. The results indicate financial contagion of the subprime crisis for all analyzed European countries. The North European markets intensified the relations of financial integration (both in negative and positive shocks) with the North American market, apart from the Danish against the Portuguese. In addition to the contribution made by the joint application of the ARMA-GARCH models, the findings are useful to identify channels of financial contagion between markets and to warn about the effects of possible new crisis, which will require different levels of adaptation by the companies' financial managers and intervention by the authorities.

2022

Ergonomics and Safety in the Design of Industrial Collaborative Robotics: A Systematic Literature Review

Autores
Pinheiro, S; Correia Simões, A; Pinto, A; Van Acker, BB; Bombeke, K; Romero, D; Vaz, M; Santos, J;

Publicação
Studies in Systems, Decision and Control

Abstract
Objective: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify relevant ergonomic and safety factors for designing collaborative workspaces in industrial settings. Background: The growing use of smart and collaborative robots in manufacturing brings some challenges for the human-robot interaction design. Human-centered manufacturing solutions will improve physical and mental well-being, performance, productivity and sustainability. Method: A systematic review of the literature was performed based on the protocol of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Results: After a search in the databases Scopus and Web of Science, applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 33 publications in the English language, published between the years 2010 and 2020, remained in the final analysis. Publications were categorized in cognitive ergonomic factors (13), safety factors (10), physical ergonomic factors (6) and organizational ergonomic factors (4). The analysis of results reinforced that to optimize the design of collaborative workstations it is imperative to have a holistic perspective of collaboration, integrating multiple key factors from areas such as engineering, ergonomics, safety, sociology and psychological as well as manufacturing efficiency and productivity. Application: Considering the advantages of the use of cobots in manufacturing, the results of this review will be useful to support companies in implementing human-robot collaboration. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

2022

Impact of Governmental Support for the Implementation of Industry 4.0 in Portugal

Autores
Faria, BS; Simoes, AC; Rodrigues, JC;

Publicação
INNOVATIONS IN INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

Abstract
Technological breakthroughs, such as the Internet of Things, Big Data repositories, artificial intelligence or additive manufacturing, are triggering a Fourth Industrial Revolution. This new revolution, also known as Industry 4.0, is characterized by the combination of physical and digital worlds in digital ecosystems that connect the different members in the value chain from clients to suppliers and distributors. Companies are redefining their strategies based on this new paradigm to obtain a competitive advantage. They aim to achieve more efficient and flexible productive processes that can produce high-quality products at low costs, investing on mass customization to satisfy their clients. Accordingly, governments are implementing support programs that create a suitable environment for the adoption of technological innovation strategies by the companies. Although some programs may diverge in some objectives, they all aim to promote workers' skills adaptation, technological supply development, and business modernization. The Portuguese Government also released its program for Industry 4.0 support, known as Portugal i4.0, which is intended to stimulate Portuguese economy digitalization. Furthermore, in latest years, it has been supporting projects through European funds mobilizations from Portugal 2020 program. The present study analyses whether companies that received financial support from Portuguese government to implement innovative projects, within the Industry 4.0 paradigm, were able to improve economic and financial performance and competitivity gains. For such purpose, it was applied an inference statistical method to analyse the differences verified in economics and financial indicators between the periods before and after projects implementation in a selected group of companies.

2022

The Impact of Industry 4.0 Paradigm on the Pharmaceutical Industry in Portugal

Autores
Simoes, AC; Mendes, JT; Rodrigues, JC;

Publicação
INNOVATIONS IN INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

Abstract
Technological evolution has continuously driven the development of industries and consequently of society. The fourth industrial revolution consists in the combination of a set of physical and digital technologies that has been changing systems' operations within industries. The pharmaceutical industry has a considerable impact on well-being and has been strongly challenged with this new reality, not only by those that are transversal to all industries but also due to the fact that it is a highly regulated sector, which creates additional barriers for industry 4.0 (I4.0) initiative's implementation. However, it is due to the fact that this revolution provides high growth opportunities to the industry, and consequently for the improvement of population's quality of life, that this topic has been subject to so much research at a global level. This study's main purpose is to understand the impact of I4.0 paradigm implementation in the pharmaceutical industry (mainly in the production area), to analyze the technological readiness of Portuguese pharmaceutical companies to implement I4.0 technologies and to understand the role of the I4.0 paradigm to fight the pandemic situation caused by the COVID-19. To achieve this purpose, an exploratory multiple-case study based on semi-structured interviews was conducted in two Portuguese pharmaceutical companies. It is expected that the results of this work lead to recommendations that help the Portuguese pharmaceutical industry to be better prepared to face the challenges that are coming with this revolution.

2022

Designing human-robot collaboration (HRC) workspaces in industrial settings: A systematic literature review

Autores
Simoes, AC; Pinto, A; Santos, J; Pinheiro, S; Romero, D;

Publicação
JOURNAL OF MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS

Abstract
In the pursuit of increasing efficiency, productivity and flexibility at production lines and their corresponding workstations, manufacturing companies have started to heavily invest in "collaborative workspaces" where close interaction between humans and robots promises to lead to these goals that neither can achieve on their own. Therefore, it is necessary to know the contributions, recommendations and guidelines that literature presents in terms of designing a manufacturing workplace where humans and cobots interact with each other to accomplish the defined objectives. These aspects need to be explored in an integrated and multidisciplinary way to maximize human involvement in the decision chain and to promote wellbeing and quality of work. This paper presents a systematic literature review on designing human-robot collaboration (HRC) workspaces for humans and robots in industrial settings. The study involved 252 articles in international journals and conferences proceedings published till 2019. A detailed selection process led to including 65 articles to further analysis. A framework that represents the complexity levels of the influencing factors presented in human-robot interaction (HRI) contexts was developed for the content analysis. Based on this framework the guidelines and recommendations of the analysed articles are presented in three categories: Category 1 - the first level of complexity, which considers only one specific influencing factor in the HRI. This category was split into two: human operator, and technology; Category 2 - the second level of complexity, includes recommendations and guidelines related to human-robot team's performance, and thus several influencing factors are present in the HRI; and, finally, Category 3 - the third level of complexity, where recommendations and guidelines for more complex and holistic approaches in the HRI are presented. The literature offers contributions from several knowledge areas capable to design safe, ergonomic, sustainable, and healthy human-centred workplaces where not only technical but also social and psychophysical aspects of collaboration are considered.

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