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Publicações

Publicações por CPES

2011

On the use of information theoretic mean shift for electricity load patterns clustering

Autores
Sumaili, J; Keko, H; Miranda, V; Chicco, G;

Publicação
2011 IEEE PES Trondheim PowerTech: The Power of Technology for a Sustainable Society, POWERTECH 2011

Abstract
This paper analyzes the application of the Information Theoretic (IT) Mean Shift algorithm for modes finding in order to provide the classification of Electricity Customer Load Patterns. The impact of the algorithm parameters is discussed and then clustering indices are used in order to make a comparison with the classical methods available. Results show a good capability of the modes found in capturing the data structure, aggregating similar load patterns and identifying the uncommon patterns (outliers). © 2011 IEEE.

2011

Reliability impact on bulk generation system considering high penetration of electric vehicles

Autores
Da Rosa, MA; Heleno, M; Miranda, V; Matos, M; Ferreira, R;

Publicação
2011 IEEE PES Trondheim PowerTech: The Power of Technology for a Sustainable Society, POWERTECH 2011

Abstract
This paper presents a generation adequacy evaluation based on analytical calculation, considering electric vehicles. The scenarios used are exploring electric vehicles penetrations in six different European countries, in order to assess their impact on the security of supply. An analytical method is developed to perform this evaluation. Afterwards, a discussion about the accuracy of this methodology is done and the differences between this approach and a flexible Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation are identified © 2011 IEEE.

2011

Transformer fault diagnosis based on autoassociative neural networks

Autores
Castro, ARG; Miranda, V; Lima, S;

Publicação
2011 16th International Conference on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, ISAP 2011

Abstract
This paper presents a new approach to incipient fault diagnosis in power transformers, based on the results of dissolved gas analysis. A set of autoassociative neural networks or autoencoders are trained, so that each becomes tuned with a particular fault mode. Then, a parallel model is built where the autoencoders compete with one another when a new input vector is entered and the closest recognition is taken as the diagnosis sought. A remarkable accuracy is achieved with this architecture, in a large data set used for result validation. © 2011 IEEE.

2011

Finding representative wind power scenarios and their probabilities for stochastic models

Autores
Sumaili, J; Keko, H; Miranda, V; Zhou, Z; Botterud, A; Wang, J;

Publicação
2011 16th International Conference on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, ISAP 2011

Abstract
This paper analyzes the application of clustering techniques for wind power scenario reduction. The results have shown the unimodal structure of the scenario generated under a Monte Carlo process. The unimodal structure has been confirmed by the modes found by the information theoretic learning mean shift algorithm. The paper also presents a new technique able to represent the wind power forecasting uncertainty by a set of representative scenarios capable of characterizing the probability density function of the wind power forecast. From an initial large set of sampled scenarios, a reduced discrete set of representative scenarios associated with a probability of occurrence can be created finding the areas of high probability density. This will allow the reduction of the computational burden in stochastic models that require scenario representation. © 2011 IEEE.

2011

Wind power forecast uncertainty in daily operation of wind park combined with storage

Autores
Keko, H; Da Rosa, MA; Sumaili, J; Miranda, V;

Publicação
2011 8th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 11

Abstract
The inevitable wind power forecast errors result in differences between forecasted and observed wind power. To mitigate their economic impact, combining the wind power with pumped hydro energy storage may be used. In order to deliver a joint operational strategy for a wind power plant combined with storage, one requires reliable wind power forecasts. The forecasts commonly only consist of a single-value forecast (point forecast) for each look-ahead time. However, additional representative information concerning the forecast uncertainty may be required. In this paper, the influence of uncertainty representation daily operation for a wind power plant combined with pumped hydro storage is discussed. The paper illustrates how uncertainty representations such as Gaussian uncorrelated errors may also not be satisfactory. Based on a case study with a wind power plant combined with pumped hydro storage, organized for illustrative purposes, the paper demonstrates the need to have uncertainty representation including cross-period dependencies, in order to define a correct operation policy. © 2011 IEEE.

2011

Reliability evaluation of balkan generation systems considering planning exercise of wind power integration

Autores
Tomic, M; Konjic, T; Da Rosa, M; Miranda, V;

Publicação
2011 8th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 11

Abstract
In order to deal with the power fluctuations that come from wind uncertainties, this paper presents a generating reliability assessment of the real generation system of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) including wind power as an planning exercise for a given horizon. For this purposes, the sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used not only to assess conventional reliability indices as loss of load probability, loss of load expectation, loss of load frequency, and loss of load duration, but also to discuss an alternative measure of risk-based level called Well-being Analysis. © 2011 IEEE.

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