Cookies
O website necessita de alguns cookies e outros recursos semelhantes para funcionar. Caso o permita, o INESC TEC irá utilizar cookies para recolher dados sobre as suas visitas, contribuindo, assim, para estatísticas agregadas que permitem melhorar o nosso serviço. Ver mais
Aceitar Rejeitar
  • Menu
Publicações

Publicações por CPES

2022

Forecasting: theory and practice

Autores
Petropoulos, F; Apiletti, D; Assimakopoulos, V; Babai, MZ; Barrow, DK; Ben Taieb, S; Bergmeir, C; Bessa, RJ; Bijak, J; Boylan, JE; Browell, J; Carnevale, C; Castle, JL; Cirillo, P; Clements, MP; Cordeiro, C; Oliveira, FLC; De Baets, S; Dokumentov, A; Ellison, J; Fiszeder, P; Franses, PH; Frazier, DT; Gilliland, M; Gonul, MS; Goodwin, P; Grossi, L; Grushka Cockayne, Y; Guidolin, M; Guidolin, M; Gunter, U; Guo, XJ; Guseo, R; Harvey, N; Hendry, DF; Hollyman, R; Januschowski, T; Jeon, J; Jose, VRR; Kang, YF; Koehler, AB; Kolassa, S; Kourentzes, N; Leva, S; Li, F; Litsiou, K; Makridakis, S; Martin, GM; Martinez, AB; Meeran, S; Modis, T; Nikolopoulos, K; Onkal, D; Paccagnini, A; Panagiotelis, A; Panapakidis, I; Pavia, JM; Pedio, M; Pedregal, DJ; Pinson, P; Ramos, P; Rapach, DE; Reade, JJ; Rostami Tabar, B; Rubaszek, M; Sermpinis, G; Shang, HL; Spiliotis, E; Syntetos, AA; Talagala, PD; Talagala, TS; Tashman, L; Thomakos, D; Thorarinsdottir, T; Todini, E; Arenas, JRT; Wang, XQ; Winkler, RL; Yusupova, A; Ziel, F;

Publicação
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. (C) 2021 The Author( s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.

2022

A Blockchain-based Data Market for Renewable Energy Forecasts

Autores
Coelho, F; Silva, F; Goncalves, C; Bessa, R; Alonso, A;

Publicação
2022 FOURTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON BLOCKCHAIN COMPUTING AND APPLICATIONS (BCCA)

Abstract
This paper presents a data market aimed at trading energy forecasts data. The system architecture is built using blockchain as a service, allowing access to data streams and establishing a distributed settlement between stakeholders. Energy Forecasts data is presented as the commodity traded in the market, whose settlement is provided through the blockchain on the basis of the extracted value provided by market stakeholders. Our proposal allows market stakeholders to acquire energy forecasts and pay according to the data accuracy, solving the confidentiality problem of freely sharing data. A data quality reward is introduced, steering the compensation sent to market participants. The data market design is presented and an evaluation campaign is performed, showing that the data market produced functionally valid results in comparison with the results achieved with a central simulated approach. Moreover, results show that the data market architecture is able to scale.

2022

Local flexibility need estimation based on distribution grid segmentation

Autores
Retorta, F; Gouveia, C; Sampaio, G; Bessa, R; Villar, J;

Publicação
International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM

Abstract
This work presents a methodology to segment the MV electric grid into grid zones for which the active power flexibility needs that solve the forecasted voltage and current issues are computed. This methodology enables the Distribution System Operator (DSO) to publish flexibility needs per zones, allowing aggregators to offer flexibility by optimizing their portfolio of resources in each grid zone. A case study is used to support the methodology results and its performance, showing the feasibility of solving grid issues by activating flexibility per grid zones according to the proposed methodology. © 2022 IEEE.

2022

EUNIVERSAL'S SMART GRID SOLUTIONS FOR THE COORDINATED OPERATION & PLANNING OF MV AND LV NETWORKS WITH HIGH EV INTEGRATION

Autores
Sampaio G.; Gouveia C.; Bessa R.; Villar J.; Retorta F.; Carvalho L.; Merckx C.; Benothman F.; Promel F.; Panteli M.; Mourão R.L.; Louro M.; Águas A.; Marques P.;

Publicação
IET Conference Proceedings

Abstract
EUniversal project aims to facilitate the use of flexibility services and interlink distribution system's active management with electricity markets. Implementing market-based flexibility services implies a change in distribution network monitoring and control towards a more predictive approach. However, integrating cost-effective monitoring and control tools for the LV network is still quite challenging. Within the project, a set of operation and planning tools have been developed for a coordinated quantification and activation of flexibility in HV, MV and LV distribution networks. The paper presents the tools developed for the Portuguese pilot and shows preliminary results obtained when considering network operation scenarios characterized by large scale integration of DER and EV.

2022

Maximizing Green Hydrogen Production with Power Flow Tracing

Autores
Dudkina, E; Villar, J; Bessa, RJ;

Publicação
International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM

Abstract
Decarbonization of energy systems is one of the main tracks in the energy sector, and in this transition, green hydrogen assumes an important role. Considering the variability of renewable energy sources (RES), the flexibility of the hydrogen production could help dealing with imbalances. However, to truly contribute to a greener energy mix, a principle of additivity must be obeyed. In other words, to produce green hydrogen, the energy supplied to the electrolyzers must be renewable and must not entail a decrease in the RES consumed by other loads according to the energy strategic plans. This study integrates power flow tracing (PFT) technique within an optimal power flow (OPF) to determine and maximize the physical flow between the energy from RES generators and the electrolyzer through the existing grid. The proposed method was tested on both radial and meshed IEEE test grids. Simulation results showed that the electrolyzer green supply can be increased by controlling the dispatch of the distributed generators (e.g., CHP) according to the location of the electrolyzer. In addition, installing storage systems nearby load buses allows increasing the amount of green supply by using the RES-based electricity stored. © 2022 IEEE.

2022

ML-Assistant for human operators to solve faults and classify events complexity in electrical grids

Autores
Campos, V; Andrad, JR; Bessa, RJ; Gouveia, C;

Publicação
13th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion (MEDPOWER 2022)

Abstract

  • 30
  • 315