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Publicações

Publicações por CPES

2020

Predicting Long-Term Wind Speed in Wind Farms of Northeast Brazil: A Comparative Analysis Through Machine Learning Models

Autores
de Paula, M; Colnago, M; Fidalgo, J; Casaca, W;

Publicação
IEEE LATIN AMERICA TRANSACTIONS

Abstract
The rapid growth of wind generation in northeast Brazil has led to multiple benefits to many different stakeholders of energy industry, especially because the wind is a renewable resource - an abundant and ubiquitous power source present in almost every state in the northeast region of Brazil. Despite the several benefits of wind power, forecasting the wind speed becomes a challenging task in practice, as it is highly volatile over time, especially when one has to deal with long-term predictions. Therefore, this paper focuses on applying different Machine Learning strategies such as Random Forest, Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting to perform regression on wind data for long periods of time. Three wind farms in the northeast Brazil have been investigated, whose data sets were constructed from the wind farms data collections and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Statistical analyses of the wind data and the optimization of the trained predictors were conducted, as well as several quantitative assessments of the obtained forecast results.

2020

Orthogonal method for solving maximum correntropy-based power system state estimation

Autores
Freitas, V; Costa, AS; Miranda, V;

Publicação
IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION

Abstract
This study introduces a robust orthogonal implementation for a new class of information theory-based state estimation algorithms that rely on the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC). They are attractive due to their capability to suppress bad data. In practice, applying the MCC concept amounts to solving a matrix equation similar to the weighted least-squares normal equation, with difference that measurement weights change as a function of iteratively adjusted observation window widths. Since widely distinct measurement weights are a source of numerical ill-conditioning, the proposed orthogonal implementation is beneficial to impart numerical robustness to the MCC solution. Furthermore, the row-processing nature of the proposed solver greatly facilitates bad data removal as soon as outliers are identified by the MCC algorithm. Another desirable feature of the orthogonal MCC estimator is that it avoids the need of post-processing stages for bad data treatment. The performance of the proposed scheme is assessed through tests conducted on the IEEE 14-bus, 30-bus, 57-bus and 118-bus test systems. Simulation results indicate that the MCC orthogonal implementation exhibits superior bad data suppression capability as compared with conventional methods. It is also advantageous in terms of computational effort, particularly as the number of simultaneous bad data grows.

2020

DER adopter analysis using spatial autocorrelation and information gain ratio under different census-data aggregation levels

Autores
Heymann, F; Lopes, M; vom Scheidt, F; Silva, JM; Duenas, P; Soares, FJ; Miranda, V;

Publicação
IET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION

Abstract
Residential consumers have been adopting distributed energy resources (DER) like photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EV) as well as electric heating, ventilation and air conditioning devices (HVAC) in recent years - thus substantially reshaping power systems. This study is dedicated to the analysis of such adopters in continental Portugal, using both spatial analysis tools and census data with information theoretic criteria. Results suggest that the current uptake of EV, PV, and HVAC is characterised by spatially auto-correlated adoption patterns. The analysis of census variables, on the other hand, reveals that Portuguese EV, PV, and HVAC adopters exhibit a few surprising, unrecorded characteristics compared with previous studies. Comparing different dataset resolutions, EV and HVAC adopters are found to be most similar across all three aggregation levels considered. Results further show that fewer adopter groups tend to own both EV-HVAC and PV-HVAC, reducing per se synergy potentials that may arise behind the metre. One of the main outcomes from this work is that studies describing energy technology adopters using census variables might receive very unstable results across different data aggregation levels. This may lead to adverse effects on studies' conclusiveness and energy policy design choices.

2020

Favorable properties of Interior Point Method and Generalized Correntropy in power system State Estimation

Autores
Pesteh, S; Moayyed, H; Miranda, V;

Publicação
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Abstract
The paper provides the theoretical proof of earlier published experimental evidence of the favorable properties of a new method for State Estimation - the Generalized Correntropy Interior Point method (GCIP). The model uses a kernel estimate of the Generalized Correntropy of the error distribution as objective function, adopting Generalized Gaussian kernels. The problem is addressed by solving a constrained non-linear optimization program to maximize the similarity between states and estimated values. Solution space is searched through a special setting of a primal-dual Interior Point Method. This paper offers mathematical proof of key issues: first, that there is a theoretical shape parameter value for the kernel functions such that the feasible solution region is strictly convex, thus guaranteeing that any local solution is global or uniquely defined. Second, that a transformed system of measurement equations assures an even distribution of leverage points in the factor space of multiple regression, allowing the treatment of leverage points in a natural way. In addition, the estimated residual of GCIP model is not necessarily zero for critical (non-redundant) measurements. Finally, that the normalized residuals of critical sets are not necessarily equal in the new model, making the identification of bad data possible in these cases.

2020

Information Theoretic Generalized State Estimation in power systems

Autores
Meneghetti, R; Costa, AS; Miranda, V; Ascari, LB;

Publicação
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Abstract
This paper introduces an Information Theoretic approach for Generalized State Estimation, aiming at achieving reliable topology and state variables co-estimation results, even in the presence of both topology errors and gross measurements. Attention is focused on the final bad data processing stage in which only relevant parts of the power network are represented at the bus-section level. The proposed generalized strategy applied at physical level relies on the superior outlier rejection properties of state estimators based on Maximum Correntropy, a concept borrowed from Information Theoretical Learning. A single objective function unifies the treatment of analog measurements and topology data, leading to an algorithm that does not require re-estimation runs for bad data suppression, and is simpler and more efficient than previously proposed co-estimation methods. Case studies conducted for distinct test-systems are presented, including various types of topology errors and simultaneous occurrence of topology and gross measurement errors. The results suggest that the proposed information-theoretic co-estimation algorithm is able to successfully provide bad data-free real-time network models even in the presence of multiple topology errors, simultaneous gross measurements and inaccurate topology information. Finally, additional tests confirm its superior computational performance as compared with other co-estimation algorithms.

2020

Tracking Power System State Evolution with Maximum-correntropy-based Extended Kalman Filter

Autores
Massignan, JAD; London, JBA; Miranda, V;

Publicação
JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY

Abstract
This paper develops a novel approach to track power system state evolution based on the maximum correntropy criterion, due to its robustness against non-Gaussian errors. It includes the temporal aspects on the estimation process within a maximum-correntropy-based extended Kalman filter (MCEKF), which is able to deal with both nonlinear supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurement models. By representing the behavior of the state variables with a nonparametric model within the kernel density estimation, it is possible to include abrupt state transitions as part of the process noise with non-Gaussian characteristics. Also, a novel strategy to update the size of Parzen windows in the kernel estimation is proposed to suppress the effects of suspect samples. By properly adjusting the kernel bandwidth, the proposed MCEKF keeps its accuracy during sudden load changes and contingencies, or in the presence of bad data. Simulations with IEEE test systems and the Brazilian interconnected system are carried out. The results show that the method deals with non-Gaussian noises in both the process and measurement, and provides accurate estimates of the system state under normal and abnormal conditions.

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