2011
Autores
Botterud, A; Zhou, Z; Wang, J; Bessa, RJ; Keko, H; Sumaili, J; Miranda, V;
Publicação
2011 IEEE POWER AND ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING
Abstract
In this paper we discuss the use of wind power forecasting in electricity market operations. In particular, we demonstrate how probabilistic forecasts can contribute to address the uncertainty and variability in wind power. We focus on efficient use of forecasts in the unit commitment problem and discuss potential implications for electricity market operations.
2008
Autores
Bessa, R; Miranda, V; Gama, J;
Publicação
2008 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING, VOLS 1-11
Abstract
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. It also addresses the differences relevant to power system operation between off-line and on-line training of neural networks. Real case examples are presented.
2009
Autores
Bessa, RJ; Miranda, V; Gama, J;
Publicação
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
Abstract
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's entropy is combined with a Parzen windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of two criteria (minimum entropy and maximum correntropy) under which neural networks are trained. The results are favorably compared in online and offline training with the traditional minimum square error (MSE) criterion. Real case examples for two distinct wind parks are presented.
2010
Autores
Bessa, RJ; Miranda, V; Principe, JC; Botterud, A; Wang, J;
Publicação
2010 INTERNATIONAL JOINT CONFERENCE ON NEURAL NETWORKS IJCNN 2010
Abstract
This paper reports new results in adopting information theoretic learning concepts in the training of neural networks to perform wind power forecasts. The forecast "goodness" is discussed under two paradigms: one is only concerned in measuring the deviation between the forecasted and realized values, the other is related with the value of the forecast in the electricity market for different agents. The results and conclusions are supported by a real case example.
2011
Autores
Bessa, RJ; Miranda, V; Botterud, A; Wang, J;
Publicação
WIND ENERGY
Abstract
This paper reports a study on the importance of the training criteria for wind power forecasting and calls into question the generally assumed neutrality of the 'goodness' of particular forecasts. The study, focused on the Spanish Electricity Market as a representative example, combines different training criteria and different users of the forecasts to compare them in terms of the benefits obtained. In addition to more classical criteria, an information theoretic learning training criterion, called parametric correntropy, is introduced as a means to correct problems detected in other criteria and achieve more satisfactory compromises among conflicting criteria, namely forecasting value and quality. We show that the interests of wind farm owners may lead to a preference for biased forecasts, which may be in conflict with the larger needs of secure operating policies. The ideas and conclusions are supported by results from three real wind farms. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
2011
Autores
Wang, J; Botterud, A; Bessa, R; Keko, H; Carvalho, L; Issicaba, D; Sumaili, J; Miranda, V;
Publicação
APPLIED ENERGY
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the representation of wind power forecasting (WPF) uncertainty in the unit commitment (UC) problem. While deterministic approaches use a point forecast of wind power output, WPF uncertainty in the stochastic UC alternative is captured by a number of scenarios that include cross-temporal dependency. A comparison among a diversity of UC strategies (based on a set of realistic experiments) is presented. The results indicate that representing WPF uncertainty with wind power scenarios that rely on stochastic UC has advantages over deterministic approaches that mimic the classical models. Moreover, the stochastic model provides a rational and adaptive way to provide adequate spinning reserves at every hour, as opposed to increasing reserves to predefined, fixed margins that cannot account either for the system's costs or its assumed risks.
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