Abstract
This paper presents a novel time-adaptive quantile-copula estimator for kernel density forecast and a discussion of how to select the adequate kernels for modeling the different variables of the problem. Results are presented for different case-studies and compared with splines quantile regression (QR). The datasets used are from NREL's Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study, and from a real wind farm located in the Midwest region of the United States. The new probabilistic prediction model is elegant and simple and yet displays advantages over the traditional QR approach. Especially notable is the quality of the results achieved with the time-adaptive version, namely when evaluated in terms of prediction calibration, which is a characteristic that is advantageous for both system operators and wind power producers.

Abstract
This paper presents a new model for optimal trading of wind power in day-ahead (DA) electricity markets under uncertainty in wind power and prices. The model considers settlement mechanisms in markets with locational marginal prices (LMPs), where wind power is not necessarily penalized from deviations between DA schedule and real-time (RT) dispatch. We use kernel density estimation to produce a probabilistic wind power forecast, whereas uncertainties in DA and RT prices are assumed to be Gaussian. Utility theory and conditional value at risk (CVAR) are used to represent the risk preferences of the wind power producers. The model is tested on real-world data from a large-scale wind farm in the United States. Optimal DA bids are derived under different assumptions for risk preferences and deviation penalty schemes. The results show that in the absence of a deviation penalty, the optimal bidding strategy is largely driven by price expectations. A deviation penalty brings the bid closer to the expected wind power forecast. Furthermore, the results illustrate that the proposed model can effectively control the trade-off between risk and return for wind power producers operating in volatile electricity markets.

Abstract
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined with a Parzen Windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of three criteria (MEE, MCC and MEEF) under which neural networks are trained. The results are favourably compared with the traditional minimum square error (MSE) criterion. Real case examples for two distinct wind parks are presented.

Abstract
The new energy policies adopted by the European Union are set to help in the decarbonization of the energy system. In this context, the share of Variable Renewable Energy Sources is growing, affecting electricity markets, and increasing the need for system flexibility to accommodate their volatility. For this reason, legislation and incentives are being developed to engage consumers in the power sector activities and in providing their potential flexibility in the scope of grid system services. This work identifies energy and cross-sector Business Models (BM) centered on or linked to the provision of distributed flexibility to the DSO and TSO, building on those found in previous research projects or from companies' commercial proposals. These BM are described and classified according to the main actor. The remaining actors, their roles, the interactions among them, how value is created by the BM activities and their value propositions are also described.

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